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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: social networks » Fears that terrorists may acquire Pakistani nuclear material

version: 2 / updated: 2010-12-06
id: #1199 / version id: #1198
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Social Networks (e.g. Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter)

The source of the Weak Signal is

WikiLeaks (as reported by BBC News)

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Fears that terrorists may acquire Pakistani nuclear material

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
US and UK diplomats feared Pakistan's nuclear material could fall into the hands of terrorists, the Guardian reports some of the leaked cables as revealing. Cables reported in the New York Times reveal the US has been attempting to remove highly enriched uranium from a research reactor in Pakistan since 2007. In a May 2009 cable, US ambassador Anne W Patterson says Pakistan had refused a visit from US experts. She quotes Pakistan officials as saying removing the fuel would be seen in Pakistan "as the United States taking Pakistan's nuclear weapons". Another cable concerning a US intelligence briefing in 2008, reported in the Guardian, said Pakistan was "producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world". Russian foreign ministry official Yuri Korolev feared that Islamists might infiltrate the ranks of the 120,000-130,000 people directly involved in Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes. "There is no way to guarantee that all are 100% loyal and reliable," he told US officials in February, according to the Guardian.

Keywords

terrorists, terrorism, Pakistan, nuclear, security, WikiLeaks

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
US and UK diplomats feared Pakistan's nuclear material could fall into the hands of terrorists, the Guardian reports some of the leaked cables as revealing.

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Islamists might infiltrate the ranks of the 120,000-130,000 people directly involved in Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes new/emerging
 		very harmful
 		now-2015

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

Nothing is done to prevent it

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Pakistan, USA
Level 2: important for a particular world region Middle-East
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Comments on selection:

As reported by The Guardian, the US government's panic over the WikiLeaks revelations is extending to American campuses, with Columbia University warning students they risk future job prospects if they download any of the material. Similar filleting strategies are likely to appear at other political and communicational levels. See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/dec/05/columbia-students-wikileaks-cables

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Social Growing power of information and knowledge societies
Technological/Scientific Growing power of Web related ICT
Values/Ethical/Cultural Lack of trust in governments

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Terrorists might infiltrate people directly involved in Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes
between 2015-2025 Nuclear attack by terrorists

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Set up security experts groups/missions to help to help Pakistani authorities to protect nuclear facilities
Media To be more objective and investigative

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Governance and trust in democracy
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security
Nuclear research

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
More security-related research is needed on nuclear facilities around the world