quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 100.00%   WWI-WE Version: 2
0 mandatory questions pending
19 questions total
19 questions answered
19 questions completed
0 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: lawmakers/politicians » Gordon Brown fears about Euro stability in 2011

version: 2 / updated: 2010-12-09
id: #1232 / version id: #1231
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Lawmakers/legislators

The source of the Weak Signal is

Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown (as reported by BBC)

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Gordon Brown fears about Euro stability in 2011

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
BBC reports that Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said that the euro's problems were bigger than just its governments' debts. Europe must also solve the euro's structural rigidities and the enormous debts of its banks, he warned. Europe's banks - including the UK's - faced massive liabilities and had inadequate capital to absorb losses, he said, creating the risk of a Europe-wide banking crisis. The warning echoed complaints by Irish opposition politicians that their country had been strong-armed by Brussels into footing the bill for rescuing the Irish banks, because failing to do so could have sparked a wider European banking crisis. Mr Brown also said that the structural reforms needed to make the euro work as a single currency area had not been carried out, or even agreed.

Keywords

Euro, stability, 2011, crisis, economy, banking, Europe

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he fears the euro will face a "high noon" moment of reckoning early in the New Year. He even suggests that in the first few months of 2011 there could be a major crisis in the euro area.

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Abrupt collapse of the Euro Zone new/emerging
 		very harmful
 		now-2015

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

A business as usual scenario with nothing done to prevent an economic crisis

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Comments on selection:

European politicians and media decide to simply ignore Mr Brown's warning

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Economic High levels of unemployment in some European countries
Political Lack of consensus on socio-economic reforms
Values/Ethical/Cultural Euro as a symbol of European unity

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Desintegration of the Euro Zone followed by major economic crisis

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Promoting an fully-fledged economic evaluation and multi-stakeholder response
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Seek responsible and strategic joint actions with national governments (e.g. creating job opportunities)
Academic/Research sector Support governments and business with expert advise
Media Raise public awareness
General public Reduce interest in celebrity shows and focus the attention on the potential impact of a major crisis in everyday life

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
It could research on the pros and cons of critical and potentially evidence-based opinions of former country/political leaders.