quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 87.92%   WWI-WE Version: 3
0 mandatory questions pending
19 questions total
16 questions answered
16 questions completed
3 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Regulation of Privatisation of War

version: 3 / updated: 2009-10-16
id: #195 / version id: #189
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ian Miles
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ian Miles
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 8 - Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Conflicts, peace and human rights

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
PRIV-WAR (217405)

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Weak Signal

File name File type File size
iKNOW Bulletin (draft) document 222048 open

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Regulation of Privatisation of War

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Existence of FP7 project PRIV-WAR (“Regulating privatisation of war: the role of the EU in assuring the compliance with international humanitarian law and human rights”; Research area: SSH-2007-4.2-02 Articulation of rule of law and protection of human rights at national, European and international levels) Private military and security companies have long been used in situations of armed conflict. Mercenaries (“dogs of war”) have been used throughout recorded history, it seems. What seems to be a new phenomenon that the project is responding to is the use by major states of corporate organisations in a wide variety of military, security, and auxiliary roles – to the extent that many suspicions have been raised about the potential influence of such entities on security policy. This can be seen as a specific example of the more general trend of outsourcing public sector activities to private companies, also evident in prison and similarly sensitive domains in several countries. But it could also be related to governmental efforts to disengage from responsibility for (armed forces) casualties and for the conduct of peacekeeping (and activities that better fit the description of waging war). The signal refers to these developments. It is also indicative of growing concern with the human rights and ethical issues of such privatisation, which could become a major factor in the future through, e.g., litigation or public opinion. More widely, the concern might extend to some other spheres of outsourcing of public services to what has become known recently as “the public service industry”. The Weak Signal, then, might suggest simply a continuation of an existing (largely unremarked, if remarkable) trend. Or it could imply one or other extreme Wild Card. Wild Cards concerning the trend would be either a considerable intensification of the trend (war becomes very heavily privatised) or a considerable break with it (states’ ability to mobilise private actors in war-fighting – and even peacekeeping and recovery efforts (!)) becomes highly constrained.

Keywords

conflict, outsourcing, security, privatisation, ethics, law, rights, war

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Regulation of private military and security companies. continuation
 		mainly beneficial
 		now-2025
#2 Human rights abuses and ethical/legal frameworks – the latter might be weakened, strengthened, or shaped in new ways. continuation
 		very harmful
 		now-2015
#3 Corporate influence on international relations. continuation
 		mainly harmful
 		now-2025
#4 State management of public-private partnerships and public service industries. new/emerging
 		beneficial
 		now-2025
#5 Al-qaeda and BlackWaters merge new/emerging
 		neutral
 		never

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

If the privatisation of war is to be continued, we will see some extension of national and international law to regulate the behaviour of such entities more effectively, but not enough to eliminate problems nor to substantially disrupt their activities. The implications of the other scenarios would be experienced as far more important. If public (and legal) opposition to these activities grows, with more recourse to litigation or international law to restrict activities, seek compensation, punish malpractice, then implications could be substantial for military strategy in the modern world. If states have to reassume responsibility for social and economic reconstruction in occupied territories and “post-conflict” areas, then this will tax the capabilities of military forces. Some possibilities (not necessarily exclusive: (1) military forces will need to be restructured to adopt the new roles;’ (2) new entities will need to be mobilised (some form of “Peace Corps”) (3) New arrangements will need to be achieved concerning legal liability and regulatory supervision between states and private – and “third sector” non-profit – organisations. The wider ramifications of this Wild Card could be considerable. In the military sphere, there could be shifts in the abilities of states (and non-state actors in some cases?) to make use of mercenary and other forces; there could be agreements to resist legitimation of regimes coming to power by such means; and so on. More broadly, there could be knock-on effects on domestic private and privatised security and related activities (in the justice and prison systems, for instance), and possibly in other types of public services subject to privatisation. In the third scenario, where the Wild Card is an intensification of the trend, we could see the emergence of the more realistic elements of Richard Morgan’s 2004 novel MARKET FORCES. This sees the industry of “Conflict Investment” as one of the leading sectors in the highly dualistic world (and national) economy of 2049. The corporations involved are instrumental in maintaining and overthrowing regimes in the impoverished areas of the world, largely in order to maintain an international division of labour that can provide cheap production for the West. The United Nations is weaker than ever, trying to monitor and expose corporate moral excess. (The novel has many weaknesses, though there are also a few nice plot twists, as when a client is butchered when the protagonist displays some initiative and opts for regime change; the treatment of UN-corporate relations is reasonably well-imagined.)

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union The weak signal is important for European security, image in the world, and view of itself as adherent to (and leadership of) humanitarian and human rights norms. Research such as PRIV-WAR should inform activity dedicated to avoiding problems and improving practice.
Level 4: important for the whole world

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Comments on selection:

Institutional filters – military policymakers may be inclined to write off the power of legal institutions and pressure groups. Media filters – some major media outlets have little interest in covering such developments.

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Social Public attitudes to overseas engagements, military causalities, and privatisation in general. Attitudes to foreigners of different types in conflict territories
Technological/Scientific Cheapening of some classes of military and security equipment requiring limited skills to use. New media enabling recording and communication of events as they unfold. Scope for monitoring operatives by citizens and clients.
Economic Expansion of corporate interests into “war markets” Transaction cost issues
Environmental Limited environmental drivers at present, though climate change is liable to trigger much more conflict round the world
Political Declining state power Avoidance of culpability Outsourcing risk
Values/Ethical/Cultural Human rights concern Attitudes to state responsibility – in conflict situations, in privatisation more generally

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Human rights abuses. Exacerbation of hostility to occupying powers and foreign states, with knock-on effects on global conflicts and geopolitics. Threat to activity of charities and humanitarian bodies (e.g. UN) trying to work in conflict areas. Efforts to develop new regulatory frameworks. Strengthening of Human Rights organisations and legal structures.
between 2015-2025 Substantial privatisation of war, with private actors shaping more military and geopolitical strategy. Increased sousveillance initiatives. Application of improved monitoring systems.
between 2025-2050 Insurgents may their policy towards non-state actors.

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) EU, UN, development and rights agencies and foundations: review the trends and their implications for your activities and objectives. Establishment of effective governance, monitoring and enforcement regimes.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Private security and military services: introduce serious human rights and related training for field operatives; establish appropriate management reporting and accountability frameworks.

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Social pathologies & ethics Growing privatisation of war may create greater insecurity, worsening relations of EU or member states with significant parts of the world, and possibly intensifying threats of terrorism or restrictions on oil supplies or other resources.

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies Information technologies for monitoring operatives
Social Sciences and Humanities Systems to support citizen reporting and sousveillance Forensic science
Security

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
This particular weak signal has substantial implications for other areas of policy and practice, but its links to R&D and STI are limited.