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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Research on novel STI indicators

version: 1 / created: 2009-10-13
id: #188 / version id: #188
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ian Miles
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Last changed by: Ian Miles
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 8 - Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Developing better indicators for policy

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
INNOS&T (217299) http://www.innost.unibocconi.it

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Research on novel STI indicators

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
INNOS&T aims to develop and collect novel science and technology indicators with extensive European coverage, to be used in empirical models that can contribute to improve European, national and regional policies on: 1) Economic use of patents, i.e. unused patents and strategic patents, licensing, entrepreneurship; 2) Knowledge flows in the invention process, i.e. science-technology linkages, geographical proximity and knowledge interactions; 3) Gender, education and mobility of inventors, 4) Value of patents. This will mean exploring science-technology links and other phenomena. There could be numerous important results from the project (or few: indicators research sometimes just reveals things to be highly complex). But what if this project is a weak signal that quantitative studies of S&T activities, especially if informed by the sort of understanding yielded by its programme of interviews, could achieve a real breakthrough in analysis and forecasting of links between fundamental research and its commercial exploitability, or between patterns of research activity and industry-academic relationships and the achievement of highly successful (even transformative) innovations? What if this is a weak signal that we will be able to prioritise areas of applied research to fund much more effectively, organise and steer innovation-conducive ecologies for academic and industrial researchers and mangers, increase the value-for-money of public research and the impact of innovation policies more generally? The developments of indicators could be just part of the trick here – what might be equally or more important would be the application of new techniques of simulation modelling (not just conventional multivariate statistical modelling, but use of some of the emerging tools here).

Keywords

indicators, policy, S&T, patents, surveys, innovation

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 A shift in the locus of decision-making power – for instance, if it is demonstrated that policies can be conducted most effectively at local level (e.g. cities) or at EU level. continuation
 		mainly beneficial
 		now-2025
#2 A demonstrably more effective STI policy might mean increases in, or shifts in the balance of, funds and other support going to specific types of policy action – fields of research, support for cooperation, styles of innovation (e.g. open innovation), and the like. continuation
 		beneficial
 		now-2025
#3 Possible unanticipated consequences of attempts to restructure innovation systems (e.g. negative social and scholarly impacts). continuation
 		harmful
 		now-2025
#4 Intensified competition in innovation leading to increased rate of innovation continuation
 		mainly beneficial
 		now-2025

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

It might be argued that what is most likely is incremental improvement in analysis for policymaking, though one factor that might support this scenario would be more widespread advances in simulation of human social and economic behaviour – and the acceptance of such modelling in policymaking (E.g. military and security applications might predominate, but this is not necessarily so since many commercial organisations are seeking to develop and apply better understanding for their own purposes). The interests involved in this case do not make it likely that there would be deliberate efforts to subvert the trend. However, it is a commonplace that when indicators become embedded in polices (especially as targets or allocation tools), then their meaning is changed as actors seek to maximise their perceived performance. This would mean that some of the value of the new tools would be diluted.

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union In principle significant developments could lead to important shifts in EU and member state STI policymaking, with benefits in terms of (a) enhancing relative innovation performance and (b) speeding the pace of innovations directed to major challenges. The weak signal is important for European STI policy, and if it really meant step changes in policy effectiveness, this has implications for EU competitiveness. As noted, however, there is no guarantee that the benefits of these tools would be restricted to Europe.
Level 4: important for the whole world It is not inevitable that the EU would be the first to capitalise on such understanding, however. Other countries might equally apply such knowledge to enhancing their innovation. (Some countries would find this difficult simply because they are not yet geared up to produce many STI indicators – this is probably true for most large emerging economies.) Furthermore, applications might not always be toward socially beneficial innovations: military technology and other problematic areas might well be among the first areas where such instruments were applied – this is even one field where the US might be able to act rapidly despite its general lack of national innovation policy.

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)

Comments on selection:

- Much policy research promises a lot and delivers little - Policymakers tend either to overvalue quantitative data, or to fail to grapple with it on grounds of complexity or narrowness

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Technological/Scientific Improved computational technology, able to work with large data sets, and apply new modelling techniques
Economic Business interest in forging more innovative alliances with each other and research institutions.
Political Need for policy intelligence and frustration with limited value of available indicator systems and models

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Dispute between stakeholders about new policy regime Scope for addressing Grand Challenges Scope for building more support for STI policy on grounds of demonstrable success
between 2015-2025 Possible negative effects related to objectives and activities not captured in the system. Competing countries using the tools more effectively than the EU, improving them and being more able to apply within national environments. Alienation of stakeholders from technocratic decision-making. Scope for meeting Grand Challenges more effectively Scope for much more improvement and sophistication in these models, extending them to more areas and social objectives.

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Stakeholders of all types need to assess the value and limitations of these tools, techniques and results, and the extent to which proposed policies actually embody their conclusions. They need to explore missing variables and unintended consequences of these actions. Possibly explore alternative models and modelling approaches. Examine whether gaming is developing and how it can be minimised.

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Innovation dynamics

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities The developments discussed here will have strong impact on work dealing with STI and knowledge economy developments more generally. Impact on foresight work, and forward-looking elements of all research projects. Expect research community to form new patterns of alliance exploiting this intelligence; anticipate formulation of research and training proposals (etc) so as to justify them in terms of the main conclusions of the work.

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example. The tools discussed here would be valuable for assessing and monitoring the success of ERA strategies, and also help to prioritise among and interrelate them. They might well indicate need for greater coordination of specific types of activity, but anticipating precise implications requires more discussion.

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal 		The weak signal is actually being interpreted here as contributing to the upgrading of research-friendly ecologies. It is plausible that the environments that are already most advanced here would be particularly receptive to these tools (unless they were extremely narrow and based on principles that these environments have effectively outgrown – for example, if the tools neglected open innovation possibilities).

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
The weak signal concerns whether STI policies are on the brink of a revolution in evidence-based policymaking. If this materialises, we would anticipate huge changes.