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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » Entering new energy era

version: 3 / updated: 2011-01-21
id: #1470 / version id: #804
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

Jan Mlynář, Institute of Plasma Physics ASCR, Czech Republic

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Entering new energy era

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A significant breakthrough in physics of materials has been made to further to increase efficiency in production of energy. New non-fragile carbon composites were developed as well as new superconductors.

Keywords

materials, physics, nuclear energy, efficiency, era

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Discoveries in physics of materials have been made - energy is now cheaper and its production more efficient

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
growing energy demand satisfied
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Increase of energy independence of countries
Feature 6: health and quality of life
improvement of natural environment
Feature 7: security and defence
decentralization of energy resources

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region utilization of the new materials will be geographically selective
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

More financial support focused on material research New materials used in other industries (airplanes) New materials under development for lower induced activity ICT progress allows material simulations that were impossible 10 years ago

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Comments

Energy suddenly becomes a cheap and usual comodity

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Technological development
Economic Growing demand for energy
Political Support to creative research incl. fundamental research, esp. in the field of solid state physics and physical chemistry
Values/Ethical/Cultural Positive attitude of the general public to accept new technologies and building of new plant facilities

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Safeguard against monopolization Safeguard against monopolization Material research as one of the priorities Support to innovations Public research and education in S&T, open collaboration with businesses Material research as one of the priorities New measures of ethics of use of new energy Securing social stability New energy strategy New measures of ethics of use of new energy Securing social stability New energy strategy Free-licence policy New measures of ethics of use of new energy
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Higher cooperation with the research sector Implementation and utilization of new materials Not only energy but usage of the new energy sources also in transportation etc.
Academic/Research sector Higher R&D cooperation with the industry Change of research priorities Research of new environment-friendly technologies using new energy (transport, ...)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Security
Nuclear research
Research infrastructures
Regional development
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.