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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » A breakthrough discovery in plasma physics

version: 1 / created: 2010-05-10
id: #802 / version id: #802
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ondrej Valenta
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Jan Mlynář, Institute of Plasma Physics ASCR, Czech Republic

Headline

(max. 9 words)

A breakthrough discovery in plasma physics

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A shocking discovery has been made in ITER, which enables fast implementation of thermonuclear fusion into practical utilization in energy production.

Keywords

plasma, nuclear, fusion, research, discovery

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A shocking discovery has been made in ITER, which enables fast implementation of thermonuclear fusion into practical utilization in energy production.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Industry is provided by another significant source of energy - nuclear fusion

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		new significant source of energy available
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		the efforts towards utilization of nuclear fusion in production of energy succeeded

Historical parallels

nuclear power (nuclear fission) started to be used as a source of energy

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

more financial support aimed at nuclear research

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics some countries in Europe/world would afford energy from nuclear fusion, some wouldn't
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Nuclear research
Research infrastructures
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)