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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » A major EU power centre (e.g. Rome) is devastated by an earthquake

version: 3 / updated: 2009-08-31
id: #10 / version id: #7
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Natural hazards

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
MOVE (211590)

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Vatican in 2012 movie image 37099 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

A major EU power centre (e.g. Rome) is devastated by an earthquake

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A research that warned how vulnerable EU is to natural hazards and how poor its mitigation strategy was neglected and when earthquake shook Rome the world was in shock. Three-fourth of the city was destroyed and Vatican is now completely gone from the map. The 9.8 Richter scale quake not only destroyed the buildings and churches but worse than that it took away the life of the Pope and all klerus. While this does not seem to be the end of Roman Catholic religion this catastrophe has really changed the global landscape of social, economy, politics and security.

Keywords

earthquake, major city, Europe, power centre, religion

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example) 		The 2009 earthquake in city of L'Aquila (100 kilometres north-east of Rome)

Historical parallels

In 1703, Edo (now Tokyo, Japan) was destroyed by an earthquake and tsunami. More than 200,000 people died. Lisbon (Portugal) was also severely hit by an earthquake and tsunami in 1755. More than 60,000 people died.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Italy
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

On April 6, 2009 an earthquake hit L'Aquila city in Italy, killing over 300 people and leaving thousands injured

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

European believes that natural hazards just simply will not happen in EU / The research revealing the vulnerability of EU to natural hazards and to mitigate their impact will spread panic to public. A research that warned how vulnerable EU is to natural hazards and how poor its mitigation strategy was neglected and when earthquake shook Rome the world was in shock. Three-fourth of the city was destroyed and Vatican is now completely gone from the map. The 9.8 Richter scale quake not only destroyed the buildings and churches but worse than that it took away the life of the Pope and all klerus. While this does not seem to be the end of Roman Catholic religion this catastrophe has really changed the global landscape of social, economy, politics and security. EU will have to enhance its technology to predict natural disaster and mitigate the impact.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Absence of (or neglecting of) early warning systems for natural hazards and poor mitigation technology

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		The destroyed Rome will have major implication to the Italian politics, economics and social landscape.
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The destroyed Vatican will take long time to repair and will create other major (social and cultural) problems, esp. inter-religion relationship.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Social cohesion and diversity

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Research infrastructures

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures