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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » A schism of Europe between one part and another

version: 4 / updated: 2011-10-27
id: #1857 / version id: #1857
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Jack SMITH, Foresight Synergy Network, Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

A schism of Europe between one part and another

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
In the past we have had North/South East/West, an iron curtain. Another schism of a different type may be a digital have/have not, an environmental have/have not, maybe some portable cleavage causing a schism. So you may not have a united Europe, which is what the European Union is premised upon. If this were severely weakened, it would cause major dislocation in economic, cultural, social and maybe military affairs.

Keywords

rupture, schism, social exclusion, dislocation, military

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Education dynamics
Governance and trust in democracy
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.