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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » agriculture runs out of phosphor due to algae biofuel production

version: 3 / updated: 2011-01-26
id: #1489 / version id: #575
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Nutrition

Headline

(max. 9 words)

agriculture runs out of phosphor due to algae biofuel production

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Algae production gets the highest priority in global energy markets. Production of large quatities of algae requires phosphor fertilizing. All available phosphor goes to algae production and agriculture especially in developing countries starts to severlly suffer from scarcity of phosphor fertilizes. Many developing countries end up to famine and quality of food nutrition goes down globally.

Keywords

biofuel, agriculture, phosphor fertilizing, famine, algae

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Production of large quatities of algae requires phosphor fertilizing. All available phosphor goes to algae production and agriculture especially in developing countries starts to severlly suffer from scarcity of phosphor fertilizes.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
increased prices for food industries
Feature 2: education and research environment
research on food substitutes, synthetic food
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
impovrishement
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
crisis and disequilibrium
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Many developing countries end up to famine and quality of food nutrition goes down globally.
Feature 7: security and defence
enchanced threats for impovrishment of populations, famine, and social conflict

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world given that new algae fuel will change the all world energy systems

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Environmental unexpected consequences of cultivation activities

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		great problems in food provisions

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) control the cultivation processes stop the production

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Energy