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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Algae pathogen suddenly destroys new energy foundation of humankind

version: 4 / updated: 2011-04-27
id: #1722 / version id: #577
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Optimised animal health production and welfare across agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Algae pathogen suddenly destroys new energy foundation of humankind

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Step by step all human kind becomes dependent on algae biofuel production. Transportation relies almost entirely on algae biofuel, but heating and electricity production rely heavily on it as well. Use of oil goes down. Suddenly, a new type of airborne algae pathogen emerges and starts to spread around the world. The new energy foundation of the humankind gets suddenly destroyed.

Keywords

pathogen, pandemic, algae, energy, biofuel.

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Suddenly, a new type of airborne algae pathogen starts to spread destroy the new energy foundation of humankind.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
new energy foundation of the humankind gets destroyed

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Natural Systems - E.g. landscapes, mountains, oceans, rivers, forests, and the like

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Environmental rise of pathogens

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		for production of energy
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		for human health

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet
Energy security/dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Energy

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal