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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Animal Experiments End

version: 9 / updated: 2011-03-03
id: #1699 / version id: #81
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 1 - Health

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Detection, diagnosis and monitoring

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Animal_Experiments.jpg image 112336 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Animal Experiments End

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Higher moral standards prevail and induce the end of animal experiments for pharmaceutical as well as for cosmetic products in the EU.

Keywords

animal experiments, new product tests, moral standards, cosmetic products, costs

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Higher moral standards prevail and induce the end of animal experiments for pharmaceutical as well as for cosmetic products in the EU.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 7: security and defence
There might be a growing thread of illegal abductions, particularly of children and neglected people who might be misused for pharmaceutical tests in secret laboratories.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social A growing number of people becomes used to consume more sustainable. This is partly due to ecological concerns but also to higher moral standards.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Testing of products and their effects but also their side-effects becomes more difficult
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Certain pharmaceuticals might solely be affordable at an extremely high price.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Academic/Research sector Research institutions could intensify R&D on new and effective means of pharmaceutical testing procedures.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Diseases, health and well-being
Ethics and abuse of S&T

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
R&D has to focus on new approaches to guarantee high safety and effectiveness of pharmaceuticals. Drug responses have to be examined in new testing procedures, for instance through virtual simulation.