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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Automatic Guidance System for Vehicles

version: 7 / updated: 2011-01-27
id: #1524 / version id: #92
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 7 - Transport (including aeronautics)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

SST: Improving safety and security

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Automatic_Guidance.jpg image 149378 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Automatic Guidance System for Vehicles

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
An automated guidance system for vehicles revolutionises traffic. People agree to less driving pleasure and freedom to introduce this new system that completely avoids fatalities and is much more efficient as it avoids traffic jams and enables the "driver" to do other tasks during a daily commute, e.g. shaving, reading the newspaper etc..

Keywords

automated guidance, vehicles, traffic jams, automated guidance system, driving pleasure

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

An automated guidance system for vehicles revolutionises traffic. People agree to less driving pleasure and freedom to introduce this new system that completely avoids fatalities a is much more efficient and enables the "driver" to do other tasks.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
The general quality of life might increase significantly as people are less exhausted due to less mental overload and less congested traffic, particularly in rush hours. In addition, the total number of car accidents might decrease immensely.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

One striking indicator might be the growing usage of driver assistance systems in all kinds of vehicle segments.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific New technologies enable autonomous and automatic driving of vehicles.
Values/Ethical/Cultural The predominant role of a car as a status symbol is actually losing importance. An ever growing share of people just wants to get from A to B in a convenient way.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Commuters might actually reduce stress due to less injuries and traffics. Further it might increase social welfare and well being of societies.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Diseases, health and well-being
Work-Life balance and mental health

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Transport (including aeronautics)

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Automatic guidance systems lead to an ever increasing data volume and traffic. In particular, if the system is realised by car-to-car and car-to-road communication technologies. This requires large R&D activities on high performance wireless networks.