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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » Changing ones mind

version: 2 / updated: 2010-12-21
id: #1272 / version id: #1266
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Yair Sharan
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Yair Sharan
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   FESTOS project

The source of the Wild Card is

A wild card created in the FESTOS FP7 security project

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Changing ones mind

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A terrorist group uses a virus to change the behaviour or nutrelise a certain population for a certain period

Keywords

security, terrorism, organised crime, viruses

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

An artificial virus is developped that can be dispersed among people and infects individuals with specific properties. The idea to develop so called "anti ethnic" weopons using genetic engineering appeared in the past in relation with bioweapons.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
Secial health programs would be needed to protect population from unknown diseases
Feature 7: security and defence
These possibilities will pose a future threat . The availability of easy to get nanobiotechnology capabilities will make these technologies attractive to terrorists and also organised crime.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		increased interest of terrorists in nanobio technologies

Historical parallels

Bioterrorism applications

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Comments

New systems to prevent such threats will be needed

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific The availability of new knowledge and new technologies
Values/Ethical/Cultural Reduced sensativity in society to malicious use of technology

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Casualties
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		change of value systems

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) international treaty against terrorism ways to control knowledge counterterrorism acts
Academic/Research sector awareness to proliferation of sensitive knowledge

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Developing regimes of knowledge control

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
future RTD in security research, detection and identification . STI for knowledge control