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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Chinese society collapsing under its own weight.

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1911 / version id: #1911
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Oliver SPARROW, Challenge Forum, interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Chinese society collapsing under its own weight.

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The only thing holding China together is the People’s Republican Party and habit. China could go down and take a lot of debts and make the current financial crisis look like nothing.

Keywords

China, economical problems, financial crisis, economy, globalisation

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country China
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Governance and trust in democracy
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.