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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » De-Globalization

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1885 / version id: #1885
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
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Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Johannes WARTH,ZWE – Centre for European Economic Research, INterviewed by Z_Punkt

Headline

(max. 9 words)

De-Globalization

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
According to him: "I can imagine that there are increasing tendencies towards a turning back of current globalization patterns, particularly regarding global trade volumes. In this wild card scenario, a growing share of consumers will increasingly demand local goods and services, due to an increased awareness of sustainable production and logistics. Therefore, consumers are even willing to pay a higher price for regionally produced goods and services. At first sight this wild card does not appear to be wild at all, because one can already observe such tendencies today. But I think, that de-globalization will lead to certain effects and dramatic changes that possess the characteristics of a wild card".

Keywords

globalisation, localisation, sustainability, production,

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Education dynamics
Governance and trust in democracy
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.