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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Disintegrating of ordinary (nano-enabled, molecularly-manufactured) products by remote signal

version: 1 / created: 2010-07-14
id: #908 / version id: #908
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 10 - Security

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Security and society

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
FESTOS (217993)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Disintegrating of ordinary (nano-enabled, molecularly-manufactured) products by remote signal

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
In the future industry most products are manufactured by "bottom-up" molecular nanotechnology, and many have built-in expiry date (when they automatically disintegrate for recycling). Terrorists or criminals find a way to disintegrate functioning products or critical equipment "into dust and ashes" by using remote signals.

Keywords

Security, nanotechnology, molecular manufacturing, disruption, terrorists, crime

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Terrorists or criminals find a way to disintegrate nano-enabled functioning products or critical equipment "into dust and ashes" by using remote signals.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Disruption of manufacturing industry. Abolishment of use of nano-products Reliance on "natural" or pre-nano-age products.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
marketing of "anti-desintegration kits“.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
R&D for better (stable) nanomanufacturing. R&D to interrupt the desintegration signal. "Back to pre-nano age".
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Distrust in thre manufacturing industry
Feature 7: security and defence
Ecinomical & social chaos, panic

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Advances in "bottom-up" molecular manufacturing

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Security
Science in society
Research for the benefit of small & medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.