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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: business » Do-It-Yourself (DIY) wikiforesight overtakes religion

version: 9 / updated: 2011-01-07
id: #1346 / version id: #1325
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Business groups/individuals (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

B&Q - http://www.diy.com

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Do-It-Yourself (DIY) wikiforesight overtakes religion

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Widespread availability and use of futures planning toolkits and success stories (e.g. foresight and forward-looking handbooks and case studies from, among others, celebrities) leads to a radical and large-scale empowerment movement of individuals and organised civil society making medium-to-long-term decisions aimed at shaping their future. Such a proactive attitude towards change (also promoted in life-long learning programmes) leads to a global debate about the actual role and usefulness of religion in society. As a result of such public debate, a new “do-it-yourself” (DIY) futures movement overtakes organised religious groups.

Keywords

values, religion, attitude, foresight, society, planning, life-long-learning

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Social technologies and web-enabled foresight identify key resources to exploit future opportunities. Suddenly, backed by leading celebrities, this spreads rapidly and becomes so powerful that it replaces the role of religion in many people's lives.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Emergence of pay-as-you-go life-management systems.
Feature 2: education and research environment
Growing emphasis in the mapping and assessment of individuals' skills, competencies and potential.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Global awareness of the power of futures planning (foresight & forward-looking) increases people's role in shaping their lives through systematic formulation, implementation and evaluation of long-term visions. Society has less time for religion.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
This has huge implications for families, work, leisure and lifestyle, as well as the cultures which were held together with traditional faith-based religions".

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		Post-religious society

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

New ICT (such as Facebook, Twitter, etc.) and television programmes (e.g. Britain's Got Talent, American Idol and the like) have made people "aware/believe" that, to be famous or become a celebrity, you only need a good marketing strategy/platform where you can openly show-off your most remarkable skill/competence. While the current "business model" has been designed to empower and encourage people to show their skills/talent to others, such an empowerment could also lead to a growing believe that people can really shape their future, thus leaving religious beliefs on the side.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Comments

The possible collapse of organised religion and the emergence of a post-religious society.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Growing individualism Growing self-promotion
Technological/Scientific Widespread use of Web 2.0 technologies
Economic Emergence of new business models promoting people's skills and competences
Values/Ethical/Cultural Growing celebrity culture

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		More proactive and socially responsible citizens
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		End of organised religions as well as their social programmes (e.g. roman catholic schools)

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Assessment on such a wild card's medium-to long-term implication in the education system
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Development of DIY futures products (manuals, software, etc) and services (pay-as-you-go future management services)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities
Science in society

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Need for research on individual and family foresight.