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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » End of Aging

version: 7 / updated: 2011-01-27
id: #1514 / version id: #529
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 1 - Health

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Research on the brain and related diseases, human development and ageing

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
End_Aging.jpg image 162031 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

End of Aging

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Revolutionary findings mainly in biotechnology not only understand, but also impede mental and physical ageing. The impacts on human society are immense, individually and structurally: e.g. people are confronted and overstrained at first with the idea of possibly living forever; besides, the extension of life inter alia neccessitates a transformation of social systems, especially the retirement systems. Security becomes much more important. Another important aspect might concern the rise of social conflicts and a further spread of social gaps, as new technologies that impede ageing might solely be affordable for the upper classes in the launch stage.

Keywords

end of aging, aging, biotechnology, living forever, social systems

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Revolutionary findings mainly in biotechnology not only understand, but also impede mental and physical ageing. The impacts on human society are immense, individually and structurally.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 2: education and research environment
The pressure on the labour markets and on the job increases dramatically. Due to anxiety of losing the job, people show a high commitment in permanently achieving a high level of knowledge expertise, working skills and of education. Respective competencies are gained on the job, but in the free time as well.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Eternal life has always been a dream of mankind.
Technological/Scientific R&D on effective pharmaceuticals against all types of diseases is continuously improving.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild card might lead to the emergence of social conflicts and wars due to food and water shortages.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security
Regional development

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
End of aging means rapid growth of populations and an increase of consumption (regarding consumer goods, energy, water, etc.). R&D on substituting scarce resources and the implementation of closed loop models has to be intensified.