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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: foresight/futures » EU rules Member States tax policy

version: 4 / updated: 2013-06-29
id: #1979 / version id: #186
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Foresight/Futures work (e.g. EFP, Millennium Project, WFS, WFSF, UK Sigma Scan)

The source of the Wild Card is

Sigma Scan - http://www.sigmascan.org/Live/Issue/ViewIssue.aspx?IssueId=12&SearchMode=1

Headline

(max. 9 words)

EU rules Member States tax policy

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Through new rulings, the EU may become a dominant force in Member States tax policy. EU budgetary requirements and individual nations’ contribution rates are already integral to all EU members’ design of tax policy. All member states must comply with EU decisions on social justice, competition and general regulatory standards.

Keywords

tax, EU, Member States, regulation, policy

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
The European Union will have a single market with a single tax authority. Multinational companies, which move from one jurisdiction to another, willl not complain about the burden of complying with 27 different tax codes.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		new treaties, re-negotiation, past agreements’ evolution and institutional rulings

Historical parallels

The plan for and advocacy for an EU tax, as aired and supported by such figures as Romano Prodi and the Prime Ministers of Belgium and Luxembourg, and the EU budget committee in 2001. European Court of Justice rulings harmonizing tax rights for non-resident individuals and companies in EU member countries. Disputes within federal states over taxation, funding and resources. EU Growth and Stability Pact, which already limits the level of budget deficit and public debt each country and accumulate.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Continuing trend and power of European Court of Justice rulings in setting tax agendas. Adoption of the Euro, and/or the warming of the public towards its adoption. The possible dilution of veto rights and the UK's abilities to influence EU policies, perhaps as a result of the combined assertion of a group of smaller states undermining traditional dominance by the larger states. Widespread adoption of a revised version of the EU constitution and further expansion of the EU.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

Sovereignty and the nature of the EU as a federalist body are the central points here. The historical basis of modern, Western nation-states lies with their authority over their own taxes and their ability to defend their borders. A shift in authority over taxation would represent a fundamental change in the relationship between state and citizens, and raises important questions about the validity of nation-states as sovereign and essentially independent entities.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Should greater EU taxation powers be combined with a failure to improve transparency and the effectiveness of auditing, this could lead to repercussions over democratic accountability as well as institutional and financial control. A harmonisation of tax rates could add to the competitiveness of EU businesses, reducing the need for costly parallel systems of taxation and increasing prosperity across the Union.
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		In times of crisis citizens may increasingly come to blame Europe for their woes, and political parties and commentators may increasingly follow suit – pointing to the EU as a cause of wider failings at a national level. As a result the issue of the EU may become even more politicised, driving electoral success and therefore becoming more central to debate.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		In extremis, we may even political see groups at the margins increasing in their radical opposition to the EU, possibly targeting it for demonstrations, protest and even physical attack.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) EU decisions on social justice, competition and general regulatory standards, – and the European Court of Justice would have significant influence over setting tax law European government should try to retain the ability to make spending decisions on a portion of their revenue

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Governance and trust in democracy
Economic prosperity/dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.