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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » European Commission scrap research support projects

version: 4 / updated: 2011-02-04
id: #1610 / version id: #1025
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

CAPACITIES: Infrastructures

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Support for policy development, including international cooperation, for e-Infrastructures

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
ERA-INSTRUMENTS

Headline

(max. 9 words)

European Commission scrap research support projects

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The European Commission decide that research support projects do not provide a sufficient return on investment and are not viable. These funding schemes (Coordination and Specific Support Actions) are scrapped, and there are no sufficient infrastructures in place to support European research. Public sector research falls and corporate / private funding is more prevalent with manipulation of the research agenda for personal gain.

Keywords

Europe, Support, Research, research community, infrastructure, Funding

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

The European Commission decide that support projects do not provide a sufficient return on investment and are not viable. These funding schemes are scrapped, and there are no sufficient infrastructures in place to support European research.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Market values dominate. Same players always involved, no scope for new companies to be involved as no access routes. Reduction in SME participation in collaborative funded projects leading to much less exploitation of research results.
Feature 2: education and research environment
Big reduction in research topics which are also less ambitious. Corporate / private funding is more prevalent with manipulation of research agenda for personal gain.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Less innovation, especially originating from blu-skies research.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Slow down in change.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Massive change in economy especially in relation to rest of world. Economically viable projects become more important (e.g. more on plastic surgery techniques and Viagra rather than on water cleansing and famine cure).
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Health affected by reduction in medical advances not commercially driven.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		Policy decision

Historical parallels

Funding goes in cycles but this is reversal to pre-government funding

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Affect general population
Level 2: important for a particular world region Feel consequences
Level 3: important for the European Union Vs rest of the world
Level 4: important for the whole world Rest of world compete on knowledge economy better vs Europe

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

In the cycle the deficit has currently not started to drastically reduce funding but it may

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

Transform to less change in society. All determined by policy so requires abandonment of Lisbon 2000 knowledge economy target in favour of manufacturing etc

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Economic Other global regions competing better on global economy Manufacturing demand grows so profits increase
Political Decision-driven

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Slow down of economy
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Less innovation, new products, health advances Growth in non-knowledge economy industries
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		New equilibrium established -slower pace of life, higher quality of life

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Monitor. Policy decisions Lobby Monitor effects.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Lobby Adapt
Academic/Research sector Lobby Adapt
Media Report realistically

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being Reduction in advances
Economic prosperity/dynamics Massive change in economy especially in relation to rest of world

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health Reduction in advances

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		This may reverse the effect

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
May have an adverse effect on the link between policy makers and researchers. Shift change in research agenda. Quality of research could diminish with less dissemination and exploitation.