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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Global clean water problems solved in dry but sunny offshore areas via algae production

version: 4 / updated: 2011-03-07
id: #1700 / version id: #573
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Osmo Kuusi
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Increased sustainability of all production systems (agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Global clean water problems solved in dry but sunny offshore areas via algae production

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Algae production plants in sunny offshore areas become huge industrial areas which produce not only huge quantities of biofuels, but also lots of electricity and clean water from sea water. Global clean water problem is suddenly solved. GM Algae are the most efficient way for the production. But because the new algae are very effective users of salty water and sunshine their control is lost. Huge problems concerning the sees and even the climate emerge.

Keywords

algae, energy, biofuel, electricity, clean water

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Algae production plants in sunny offshore areas become huge industrial areas which produce not only huge quantities of biofuels and clean water from sea water. The lost control of algae will produce big problems,

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
First very beneficial, then big problems
Feature 2: education and research environment
Big challenges for research
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
First helping in energy and water problems then new problems
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Big challenge first to develop
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
global efforts needed in order to get the control of algae back
Feature 6: health and quality of life
clean water problem first helped, then big problems
Feature 7: security and defence
Even if limits are set for the safe use/development of algae, their governing is very difficult. Threat of bioterrorism which would intensify the risks.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific breakthrough

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Regional development
Science in society

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.