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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Inner Cities are Closed for Private Cars

version: 3 / updated: 2010-08-03
id: #937 / version id: #931
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Sivert von Saldern
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Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Germany

Workshop date

May 2010

The source of the Wild Card is

Discussion on wild cards in the transport working group.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Inner Cities are Closed for Private Cars

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Growing environmental problems such as noise and air pollution and increasing traffic chaos from a rising number of cars has led the European Union to enact a new law; European cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants have to completely close their inner cities for individual private cars. Only small mobility devices such as bicycles or scooters and all types of means of public transport, in-cluding electric vehicles from public car-sharing pools, are permitted in city centres. Private cars have to be parked in the periphery, e.g. in special car parks. The closure of city centres for private cars is obligatory and cannot be overridden by national policy.

Keywords

City Centres, Inner Cities, Private Cars, Individual Transport, Mobility

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Growing environmental problems and increasing traffic chaos from a rising number of cars has led the European Union to enact a new law; European cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants have to completely close their inner cities for private cars.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
Such a regulation certainly includes strong impacts on the life situation of residents of inner cities, as they are not permitted to enter the centre with their private cars anymore. They have to leave their cars in specific car parks in the peripheries and have to take the train, bus or any alternative means of transportation to approach their homes. Due to the increased restrictions to individual mobility and the rising dependence on public transport, living in city centres might become less attractive to a large number of people. People might move out of inner cities. On the other hand, the wild card implies important positive impacts. . First of all, it leads to a drastic reduction of environmental problems in inner cities, in particular a perceptible decrease of noise and air pollution. Thus, this wild card could lead to a growing quality of life for residents. And in case affordable, effortless and quick mobility solutions are guaranteed by specific mobility and public transport providers, this might even lead to a revival of inner city centres as habitats and many people might be attracted and move back.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Currently several weak signals exist that might indicate the prospective occurrence of this wild card. Road traffic accounts for a large part of air pollution in European cities. Followed by author-ised plants, road traffic is the second largest source of nitrogen oxide in Berlin. Several European cities such as London or Berlin have already taken different measures in order to regulate and minimise road traffic in certain parts of the inner cities. For example, in February 2003, London intro-duced a city toll (London Congestion Charge) for an area of 38 km2 in the city centre, which was further extended to the Western city districts in February 2010 (Western Extension). In 2008, Berlin introduced an access restriction for vehicles with high fine dust emissions, other cities have followed Only cars possessing an “environment sticker” which indicates the cars´ low emission level may ac-cess the so called “low emission zone”. Recent data proves, that such measures on regulating road traffic (combined with the increased efficiency of internal combustion engines) involve a decrease of pollutant concentrations in city centres. In Berlin, the overall particular matter has continuously decreased by more than 80% since 1990. Sporadic events such as the car-free Sundays (e.g, in Hannover) further reveal the demand for increased calm and relaxation in inner cities.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Governance and trust in democracy
Urban and rural dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Transport (including aeronautics)
Regional development

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.