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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Mutated hybrid humans created from stem cells which can be used for future transplants

version: 3 / updated: 2010-11-09
id: #1106 / version id: #1028
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

CAPACITIES: Infrastructures

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Support to existing research infrastructures

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
BBMRI

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Mutated hybrid humans created from stem cells which can be used for future transplants

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
There is huge ethical opposition as human clones are created from stem cells to 'grow' organs for transplants as required.

Keywords

Ethics, hybrid creature, human clone, stem cell, transplants

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

There is huge ethical opposition as human clones are created from stem cells to 'grow' organs for transplants as required.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

cloning of animals now common place - commercial cloning service for pets already available

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific perfecting cloning techniques to create 'humans'
Values/Ethical/Cultural religious fundementalist beliefs become more vocal and accepted

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		- all transplants halted due to opposition - human rights of clones and their role within society causes new apartheid reduction in costs for patient care dialysis etc. due to freely available organs
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		-death rates increase - withdrawal of funding for research into cloning
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		increased illegal organ harvesting from poor to rich countries
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		all stem cell research funding cut

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) put in place protection laws for human clones
Academic/Research sector strengthen ethical guidlines
Media reduce sensational aspect when reporting cloning results/research

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions ageing population continues to grow and stay healthy causing potential overcrowding and employment concerns
Diseases, health and well-being potential reduction in health care costs potential opportunity to eradicate diseases
Ethics and abuse of S&T potential to advance mdical knowledge or conversely stop it in it's tracks

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.