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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Nanotechnology - it's all a bit fishy...

version: 5 / updated: 2011-02-03
id: #1563 / version id: #753
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Health, safety and environmental impact

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
NHECD

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Nanotechnology - it's all a bit fishy...

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Routine monitoring of marine pollution in the Red Sea finds high levels of nanopollutants in fish and this has been traced to a nanotechnology 'accident' in Saudi Arabia. Further tests show the particles in drinking water in Egypt causing political uprising and calls for invasion!

Keywords

nanopollution, contaminated drinking water,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Monitoring of the Red Sea finds high levels of nanopollutants in fish - traced to a nanotechnology 'accident' in Saudi Arabia. Further tests show the particles in drinking water in Egypt causing political uprising and calls for invasion!

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 2: education and research environment
Drinking water in Egypt is contaminated and no longer safe to drink. Water contamination may spread.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Oil could become contaminated and critically affect transport and infrastructure.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Political uprising results in war. Middle Eastern war could lead to global war due to battle to control major resources like oil.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Water based foods unsafe (and could contaminate land based food sources) having dramatic affect on diet. Also, demand for other foods causes shortages.
Feature 7: security and defence
Major accident means public perception of nanotechnology is negative.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		Nanotechnology 'accident' leads to unexpected situation.

Historical parallels

Chernobyl (possible contamination of food as a result of a major accident)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Ultimate ouotcome of this accident is conflict between the neighbouring countries.
Level 2: important for a particular world region Sensitive political situation could be unbalanced as Saudi Arabia is seen globally as a major oil reserve and needs protection by other major powers,
Level 4: important for the whole world Potential disruption of oil supply to the world, and risk of continamted water in middle east.

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

It can be perceived that there is less regulation of technology in the Middle East leading to greater chance of accident.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

Collapse of a number of systems: Water (contaminated), Oil Supply (dramatically reduced), Political relations (conflict), Economics (tourism, import/exports)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Timescale of dmenad for new technological breakthrough (e.g. safety precautions may be reduced)
Economic Saudi Arabia trying (too hard?) to reduced their dependance on oil exports as major source of income (hence the drive to develop new technology as quickly as possbile)
Political Be the first to develop 'new' technology

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Drought, famine, conflict Nanotechnology deemed unsafe and technology advancements are put back 20 years as society has negative reaction to accident. Oil priced dramtically increase due to reduced supply
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Tourism decreases dramatically affecting economics.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The Middle East becomes more reliant on the Western World (in terms of infrastructure and rebuilding) Oil prices dramatically reduced due to stronger relations with the West

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Stronger control of safety regulations Stronger control of safety regulations Stronger control of safety regulations Resolve conflict, peace talks WIllingness to partake in peace talks
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Willingness to adopt safety practices
Media Responsilbe reporting (was nanotechnology the 'real' cause for conflict)
General public Acceptance of nanotechnology as beneficial technology (rather than dismissing it due to one accident)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet Water based foods unsafe (and could contaminiate land based food sources)having dramatic affect on diet. Also, demand for other foods causes shortages.
Energy security/dynamics Oil is a major energy resource
Techno-security, hazard & risk Major accident means public perception of nanotechnology is negative
Water security/vulnerability Water contimination may spread

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Security
Research infrastructures

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Ensuring new technology has sufficient safety procedures to minimise risks.

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		The establishment appropriate legislation may prevent the accident / future accidents

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Ensuring new technology has sufficient safety procedures to minimise risks. The establishment of appropriate legislation may prevent the accident / future accidents.