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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » One Super Test

version: 1 / created: 2011-02-01
id: #1544 / version id: #1544
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Jari Kaivo-oja
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Jari Kaivo-oja
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   Scientific American

The source of the Wild Card is

Scientific American. December 2010. 10 World Changing Ideas.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

One Super Test

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
No any more one hundred tests. A cheap diagnostic warns couples against passing rare genetic diseases to their offspring. There is no need for one hundred tests, just for a test substituting one-hundred tests.

Keywords

Rare genetic diseases, test, laboratories, children, heatlh care

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A novel and cheap diagnostic saliva test warns couples against passing rare genetic diseases to their offspring. This test irrogates the genome for more than 100 disease-causing recessive traits. Many tests are not needed anymore.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2015

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Less laboratory facilities are needed.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
This diagnostic warns couples against passing rare genetic diseases to their offspring. The test covers over 100 disease-causing recessive traits. Economic savings can be considerable. This is a positive Wild Card.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		Considerable economic savings can be gained by this new simple saliva test

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Test interrogates the genome for more than 100 disease-causing recessive traits.
Level 2: important for a particular world region Test interrogates the genome for more than 100 disease-causing recessive traits.
Level 3: important for the European Union Test interrogates the genome for more than 100 disease-causing recessive traits.
Level 4: important for the whole world Test interrogates the genome for more than 100 disease-causing recessive traits.

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

A company Counsyl has developed a simple saliva test after a long research.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

The cost of a new test is $350. Policy makers must decide how extensively this new test is adopted in national health care systems.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Medicine research
Economic A cheap new test which substitutes over 100 tests.
Values/Ethical/Cultural Genetic mastering

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Designer babies requirements Economics savings and healthier children
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Designer babies requirements Economics savings and healthier children
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Designer babies requirements Economics savings and healthier children
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Designer babies requirements Economics savings and healthier children

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits
Academic/Research sector Analyse risk, costs and benefits Analyse risk, costs and benefits
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Report critically risk, costs and benefits Report critically risk, costs and benefits
Media Report critically risk, costs and benefits Report critically risk, costs and benefits
General public Report critically risk, costs and benefits Report critically risk, costs and benefits

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being Potential cost savings of health diagnostics
Ethics and abuse of S&T Design babies requirements
Social cohesion and diversity Healthier families

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health Potential cost savings of health diagnostics

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Potential cost savings of health diagnostics

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Potential cost savings of health diagnostics

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Relevant for the whole European health care system