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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Risk assessment research creates new risks

version: 13 / updated: 2011-01-07
id: #1347 / version id: #249
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Natural hazards

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
MICORE (202798) MOVE (211590) http://www.move-fp7.eu/

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
9 countries image 58049 open
9 case study areas image 251857 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Risk assessment research creates new risks

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Risk assessment research could save millions of lives but also lead to new social disasters. Highly influential risk assessment could unexpectedly result in a widespread relocation of population as governments and insurance companies use research findings to relocate firms and jobs. By providing public access to key information about the intensity and impacts of possible extreme storm events, a European early warning study on coastal risks (unintentionally) leads to socio-economic disaster (e.g. investment and property crises) in selected case study areas in several countries. Major risks related to the relocation of "unwanted people"

Keywords

coastal risk, risk assessment, early warning, insurance, population, relocation, cities

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Risk assessment research leads to new risks such as "ghost towns" or "unwanted people". As people migrate from areas described as "highly risky", new risks start to emerge around the systemic challenges associated to the relocation of millions.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Bulgaria
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Growing availability of information about risk areas in Europe.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Mass migration

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Urban and rural dynamics
Sustainability and climate change Need for procedures on how to deal with the risks of producing information about risks

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Regional development Particularly in coastal areas

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer