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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Risks due to Virtual Simulation of Aircraft Navigation

version: 9 / updated: 2011-03-01
id: #1697 / version id: #102
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 7 - Transport (including aeronautics)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

AAT: Ensuring customer satisfaction and safety

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Risks_Aviation.jpg image 206519 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Risks due to Virtual Simulation of Aircraft Navigation

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Virtual human models in R&D do not represent real humans. Risks in labs are being underestimated and simulated movements or postures are used for the cockpit design and construction although there is room for misinterpretation.

Keywords

virtual prototyping, simulation, cockpit design, aircraft navigation, virtual human models, risks

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Virtual human models in R&D do not represent real humans. Risks in labs are being underestimated and simulated movements or postures are used for the cockpit design and construction. Dramatic accidents ensue.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
High risks due to plane crashes lead to a revival of ones own region as the preferred recreation area and travel destination.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific R&D is increasingly based on virtual simulation and virtual prototyping.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		The increased risks of flying might lead to a growing scepticism in the public towards flying.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Globalization vs. localization
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
R&D on improved and above all realistic virtual model technologies has to be intensified in order to avoid fatal accidents.