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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » 'Spray' doesn't always contribute to CO2 emissions

version: 2 / updated: 2010-11-08
id: #1091 / version id: #767
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Mastering nano-scale complexity in materials

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
SURFUNCELL

Headline

(max. 9 words)

'Spray' doesn't always contribute to CO2 emissions

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The rapid spread of spray-on solar cells leads to a worldwide rise in renewable energy production resulting in major reductions in CO2 emissions. This causes a massive escalation in debates around 'global warming' as scientists claim that the reduction in emissions hasn't effected global warming!

Keywords

spray-on solar cells, climate change, global warming,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Rapid spread of spray-on solar cells leads to a worldwide rise in renewable energy production - major reductions in CO2 emissions. Massive 'global warming' debates as scientists claim that the reduction in emissions hasn't effected global warming.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Mass painc as people think that climate change cannot be stopped
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Countries move away from the environmentally friendly trends back toards the cheaper energy production methods coal/oil etc

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world Potential to prevent further climate change

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Developed countries and lare industry historically have looked for reasons other than CO2 emissions to explain climate change, in this scenario it is likely that they would look to avoid having to make costly changes to reduce CO2 emissions if possible.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

If it could be argued that climate change was not caused by CO2 emissions then large industry and much of the developed world may stop making changes to reduce CO2 emissions, as this would be easier and cheaper in the short term.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Scientific breakthrough would result in the solar cell spray being developed
Economic Industry developed country governments would stop putting CO2 reduction policies into practice

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		All climate change reduction policies and acivities could stop The solar cells could help to reduce climate cahnge - but only as part of the wider initiative.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Continue to enforce CO2 reduction legislation Continue to enforce CO2 reduction legislation Continue to enforce CO2 reduction legislation
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Implement CO2 reduction policies and technologies Not jump on the opportunity to get rid of CO2 reduction policies for short-term profits

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Sustainability and climate change This would have profound impacts on the environment of the world

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy Cheap effective solar cells could have huge impact for the energy industry
Environment (including Climate Change) The end of CO2 reduction policies would have negative effect on the environment

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Provision of data on the importance of CO2 reduction would encourage institutions to initiate CO2 reduction policies

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Making sure policy makers are fully up to date with the data on climate change will show the importance of CO2 reduction