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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » Terrorist nuclear material misuse

version: 1 / created: 2010-04-22
id: #781 / version id: #781
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ondrej Valenta
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

Ivo Váša, Nuclear Research Institute Řež, Czech Republic

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Terrorist nuclear material misuse

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The most convenient terrorist misuse of nuclear material is to create so-called dirty bomb, a radiological weapon which combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. Through a radiological dispersal device a radioactive material is dispersed over a large area. Its purpose would presumably be to create psychological, not physical, harm through ignorance, mass panic, and terror. Another way is to attack a nuclear power plant itself. Both ways would cause huge and also long-term damages, including damage in public acceptance of nuclear power.

Keywords

nuclear, terrorism, dirty bomb, radioactive, damage

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Terrorists finally manage to misuse a possessed nuclear material to create a dirty-bomb.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Affected territory including food, many casualties and health problems of the affected public
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Threat to a civil society
Feature 7: security and defence
Failure of security measures

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Historical parallels

Similar to 9/11 attack

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country dirty bomb can affect a large territory
Level 2: important for a particular world region as a consequence, it can have an impact on a certain world region in terms of security

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

terrorist groups gaining power in the Middle East/Afghanistan still unresolved conflicts in Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan Emergence of new international conflicts concerning an islamist country

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social increasing tensions between Europeans and islamist immigrants
Political no political will to solve ethnical and religious problems in the Middle Est
Values/Ethical/Cultural ongoing radicalization of fundamental islamist groups

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Social exclusion & poverty
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security