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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Thanks to algae Australia becomes the biggest energy producer in the world

version: 2 / updated: 2011-01-26
id: #1491 / version id: #593
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Socio-economic research and support to policies

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Thanks to algae Australia becomes the biggest energy producer in the world

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Algae production begins around the world in all available sunny offshore areas, and in many inland bonds and lake areas by 2020’s. Australia becomes the biggest algae biofuel producer in the world. Big companies, small and medium size companies, countries, ministries, municipals, NGOs, military units, churches, farms, and landlords are all trying to get their share of the markets. Many countries, regions and villages which used to be dependent on imported energy and clean water sources suddenly became energy self-sufficient and energy exporters. Algae biofuel can be used on electricity production, and electricity can be further used for purifying clean water from seawater. At the same time many ex-oil producing countries loose almost all their income. Many Middle-East countries collapse economically, socially and politically and this arises big geopolitical tensions already in a short run.

Keywords

Algae, biofuels, offschore areas, energy,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Algae production begins around the world in all available sunny offshore areas, and in many inland bonds and lake areas by 2020’s. Thanks to algae Australia becomes the biggest energy producer in the world.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Thanks to algae Australia becomes the biggest energy producer in the world. At the same time many ex-oil producing countries loose almost all their income. Many Middle-East countries collapse economically, socially and politically and this arises big geopolitical tensions already in a short run.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		domination of Autralia in the world enenrgy scenario

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Uncertain

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

transformation of the world dynamics.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific the easiness of production of algae in Australian environment

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		world political instability
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		dominant position of a single part of the world over the others
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		spread of such production all over the world

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) governance of energy

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics geopolitical changes
Globalization vs. localization localisation of a critical production
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Energy
Security