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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » The coming of "technological singularity"

version: 2 / updated: 2009-11-24
id: #334 / version id: #123
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Nicholas John
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The coming of "technological singularity"

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The “technological singularity” is a concept advocated by Ray Kurzweil and other futurists (it was first introduced by the mathematician and Science Fiction writer Vernor Vinge). The basic idea is that due to the exponential growth the capabilities of information technologies leads to a “singularity”, when the power of these capabilities will be enormous and will outperform all aspects of human intelligence.

Keywords

singularity, information technologies, kurzweil, ICT, human, intelligence

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		increased computer power; increases in AI

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Uncertain

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

computers able to learn in a manner similar to that of humans

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)