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Mapping Weak Signals
Inspired by:
other
» A New Model of Chaos
version
:
1
/ created:
2011-02-02
id: #1553 / version id: #1553
mode:
VIEW
Originally submitted by:
Jari Kaivo-oja
List of all contributors by versions (
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)
Last changed by:
Jari Kaivo-oja
WI-WE status:
submitted
unpublished
Source of inspiration
Other, please specify:
MIT Technology Review
The source of the Weak Signal is
MIT Technology Review: Web: http://www.technologyreview.com/web/28827/?mod=chfeatured
Signal's headline
(max. 9 words)
A New Model of Chaos
Signal's description
(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Researchers develop a mathematical model that could help us make sense of how conflicts get messy. Researchers in the Cornell University describe a model for predicting how a social group will break apart during a turbulent split.
Keywords
Conflict, management, model, chaos, turbulence
Mini-description
(max. 250 characters)
A couple goes through a bitter breakup and their mutual friends have to choose sides. Sociologists have studied this type of situation. Some researchers have looked at ways to model it mathematically. A new model of chaos is developed.
Signal's first apperance
2005-now
Signal's potential evolution
It could lead to...
issue
type of issue/development
potential impact on society
timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1
Social conflicts
re-emerging
mainly beneficial
now-2015
Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.
Chaos theory has been developed a long time. Now a new model of chaos is developed at the Cornell university. In a paper published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers from Cornell University describe a model for predicting how a social group will break apart during a turbulent split. Jon Kleinberg, a professor of computer science at Cornell, who led the work, says researchers have traditionally focused on predicting how a group will look once the conflict has shaken out. He says this work proposes a way of looking at the process of the split itself. Kleinberg notes that his group's model doesn't apply to every situation. Instead, it portrays extremely polarizing conflicts. A sociological theory called "structural balance" describes the decisions that group members are forced to make when a group splits completely apart. The model best fits " situations where the logic starts to become, 'If you're not with me, you're against me,'" Kleinberg says.
Importance
please specify
please select
Level 4: important for the
whole world
Social conflicts are universal.
Filters preventing the signal's monitoring
information/communicational filters
(media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
affective
filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
social
filters (class, status, education level)
Key driving forces of this signal
Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1
Driver 2
Social
Understanding logic of social conflicts
Economic
Social conflicts have high costs
Values/Ethical/Cultural
Social conflicts are often culturally rooted.
Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal
Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks
Opportunities
before 2015
Better ways to solve social conflicts
between 2015-2025
Better ways to solve social conflicts
between 2025-2050
Better ways to solve social conflicts
beyond 2050
Better ways to solve social conflicts
Potential stakeholders' actions
short-term actions
(now-2015)
longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels)
Understand this new chaos model
Business actors (incl. SMEs)
Understand this new chaos model
Academic/Research sector
Understand this new chaos model
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations)
Understand this new chaos model
Media
Understand this new chaos model
General public
Understand this new chaos model
Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges
where?
please justify:
particularly relevant
Europe
world
Coexistence and conflicts
New model of conflict management possible
Social cohesion and diversity
Social conflicts decrease social cohesion
Globalization vs. localization
Understanding global conflicts
Sustainability and climate change
Climace change policy conflicts
Signal's relevance for thematic research areas
please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
Social conflicts is a key issue in social sciences and humanities
Pan-European strategies influencing the signal
please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research
through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Social conflict management has always positive effects
Research-friendly strategies
potentially improving understanding of the signal
For further information about 'research-friendly strategies'
click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.
Relevant for social cohesion policy of the EU
Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies
Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
This signal has many potential applications.
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