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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Artificial fish

version: 2 / updated: 2009-12-18
id: #627 / version id: #303
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Martin Fatun
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 3 - ICT - Information & communication technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Cognitive systems, interaction, robotics

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
SHOAL (231646), FILOSE (231495)

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Artificial fish

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
There are a couple of projects in FP7 ICT priority with ambition to create an artificial robotic fish capable of autonomous movement and sensual perception in water environment, which may enable performing of specific activities, like e.g. inspecting condition of ships or monitoring pollutions in harbours. This demand for such a device may signalise increasing interest in more intense utilization of water environment and underwater resources of raw materials in future. After exhaustion of continental environment, the ocean world may even become a new home of the mankind. It was proved, that people have certain predispositions to life in water environment, similarly like dolphins or other sea mammals. Return to the ocean thus may be one of the next chapters of human evolution.

Keywords

artificial fish, artificial intelligence, intelligent underwater robot, ocean, water environment, ICT

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
An artificial robotic fish is developed which should be capable of autonomous movement and sensual perception in water environment.

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Employment of underwater robots for monitoring movement of ships and quality of water environment in harbours etc. – Continuation issue with beneficial impact on business and environment, which will become highly probable in timeframe from now to 2015. continuation
 		beneficial
 		now-2015
#2 Formation of ocean economy, i.e. movement of industry production facilities from dry land to vicinity of the resources of raw materials in oceans (i.e. on the sea shelf and sea bed or on artificial islands) – Emerging issue with mainly beneficial impact on business, which will become highly probable in timeframe from 2015 to 2025. new/emerging
 		mainly beneficial
 		now-2025
#3 Higher vulnerability of the ocean economy to natural disasters such as tsunami, hurricanes, ocean earthquakes etc. Continuation issue with negative impact on business and ecology, which will become highly probable in timeframe from 2015 to 2025. continuation
 		harmful
 		now-2025
#4 Migration of population from inland to seaside and then as well to newly built artificial islands and underwater cities nearby the centres of ocean economy – Emerging issue with mixed impact on business, society and ecology, which will become significantly probable in timeframe from 2025 to 2050. new/emerging
 		neutral
 		now-2050
#5 Migration of the population from land into ocean environment – Emerging issue with mixed impact on everything, with small probability in very distant future. new/emerging
 		neutral
 		now-2050+

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

The weak signal itself may further evolve in “business-as-usual” environment (i.e. improvement of capabilities of the artificial fish and other water environment robots); some EC actions supporting development of particular desirable implications of the weak signal may however be useful (further R&D support, new legislation about the ocean environment exploitation, popularization of the desirable implications in media). The weak signal may indicate future boom of ocean economy after exhaustion of continental environment (factories built straight next to row material resources on the shelf and a seabed, artificial islands, solar and wind power plants on the ocean surface etc.). Later on, a migration of the population from land into ocean may be possible.

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world The weak signal is important for the whole world, because it could indicate a beginning of new era in exploitation of the water environment. Although the weak signal has a particular importance especially for seaside countries and regions, from the perspective of the European Union it is necessary to consider potential implications of the weak signal for Europe as a whole.

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Comments on selection:

• Scientific filters: The technology is not yet publicly accessible, and so the potential users are not aware of its possibilities. • There is not much information about development of the new technology and its expected benefits and risks in media.

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Technological/Scientific The latest technological progress in field of robotics has created preconditions for development of the weak signal. Among advanced technologies used in projects FLOSE and SHOAL belong e.g. micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) or machanosensory arrays.
Economic With help of autonomous robotic devices the economic exploitation of the water environment will be easier and more effective. As well, further industrial development needs new raw material resources, which are located in oceans and may be exploited with help of advanced technologies.
Environmental Monitoring of water environment – i.e. pollution in ports as specified in European Union directive 2005/35 – is one of intentions of the project SHOAL.

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Autonomous underwater robotic apparatus may be used by pirates to attack ships or by terrorists to attack various sea or coastal targets. Immediate employment of underwater robots for monitoring movement of ships and quality of water environment in harbours etc.
between 2015-2025 * Ocean environment threatened by the boom of the ocean economy. • Increasing vulnerability of the ocean economy to natural disasters (tsunami, hurricanes, ocean earthquakes etc.) * Formation of the ocean economy, rapid economic growth of the seaside regions and states. • Exploitation of new resources of raw materials in oceans. • Exploitation of new ecological sources of energy (e.g. solar and wind power plants located on ocean surface). • Improvement of continental environment because of the industry migration to the ocean.
between 2025-2050 Serious social, political, environmental and infrastructural problems caused by massive migration of the population from inland areas falling behind to the prosperous seaside regions. Possibility to build a new type of society (i.e. economic and interpersonal relationships) in new ‘cities’ built up in the oceans.

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) • To exploit the opportunities, EC and national governments should support further R&D enabling the breakthrough of the ocean economy, i.e. intelligent autonomous robots, principles of underwater movement and orientation of such devices, new materials suitable for underwater engineering, new methods of energy production and transport in ocean environment etc. • To prevent the immediate risks (terrorism and piracy), EC and national governments should closely cooperate in security issues. • To be prepared to all the possible difficulties which may come about with the boom of the ocean economy in medium time horizon, the EC should prepare and enforce new international legislation about the ocean environment exploitation, together with new suitable environmental standards. • The EC and national governments should support R&D focused on prevention and restriction of effects of natural disasters threatening the ocean facilities. • The EC should guarantee a common European consensus on ocean economy development and principles. It also should guarantee an equal access of all European states and regions to the achievements of the ocean economy.
Media The EC in cooperation with media should support popularization of the desirable implications of the weak signal through media and this way to shape attitude of the public as to these issues.

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change The weak signal may imply major changes in transportation and consumption patterns (new range of products and their transport to customers).
Energy security/dynamics The weak signal may imply utilization of new renewable energy sources (solar and wind power plant on the ocean surface).
Economic prosperity/dynamics The weak signal may imply formation of a new economic environment. Major social changes will then likely follow.
Innovation dynamics The weak signal may imply future differences between inland and seaside states and regions in access to the technologies and possibilities of their exploitation.
Urban and rural dynamics The weak signal may imply building of new settlements in seaside regions and ocean. The size of inland population may decrease.
Sustainability and climate change The weak signal is connected with a possible improvement of continental ecology, but as well with considerable risk of danger for ocean and coastal ecology.

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies Primarily, the research in ICT (e.g. Cognitive systems, interactions, robotics) and Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials and new production technologies has a crucial importance for further development of desired implications of the weak signal.
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Regional development
International S&T Cooperation
Research for the benefit of small & medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc. 		Making research institutions more aware of needs of economy and particular producers may accelerate development of required technologies.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Close cooperation between researchers and policy makers may lead to prevention of undesired implications of the weak signal.

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
The future RTD & STI policies at EU and national level should create conditions for utilisation of opportunities and elimination of risks connected to the implications of the weak signal. The policies should support all the potential stakeholders’ actions mentioned above.