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Mapping Weak Signals
Inspired by:
FP7
» Growing interest in geo-engineering options
version
:
1
/ created:
2010-12-04
id: #1193 / version id: #1193
mode:
VIEW
Originally submitted by:
Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (
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Last changed by:
Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted
unpublished
archived
Source of inspiration
European Commission Framework Programme for RTD
(FP7)
Theme/activity of inspiration
Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)
Sub-theme/area of inspiration
Pressures on environment and climate
Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s
Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
IMPLICC (226567) - http://implicc.zmaw.de
Signal's headline
(max. 9 words)
Growing interest in geo-engineering options
Signal's description
(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Growing number of research efforts aimed to increase the level of knowledge about the feasibility and implications of geo-engineering options to limit climate change with, for example: deliberate manipulations of the radiative budget of the Earth. Such an approach may counterbalance the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature, but may also result in undesirable side effects for crucial parts of the Earth system and humankind.
Keywords
climate change, geo-engineering,
Mini-description
(max. 250 characters)
Growing number of research efforts aimed to increase the level of knowledge about the feasibility and implications of geo-engineering options to, for example, limit climate change.
Signal's first apperance
2005-now
Signal's potential evolution
It could lead to...
issue
type of issue/development
potential impact on society
timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1
Successful counterbalancing of the effects of continued greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature
new/emerging
very beneficial
now-2050
#2
Significant unexpected and undesirable side effects of geo-engineering
new/emerging
very harmful
now-2050
Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.
Research on geo-engineering continues without seriously considering side effects.
Importance
please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the
European Union
Level 4: important for the
whole world
Filters preventing the signal's monitoring
information/communicational filters
(media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
scientific
filters (knowledge/technology access)
Comments on selection:
Lack of relevant information and knowledge frameworks to follow up geo-engineering developments
Key driving forces of this signal
Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1
Driver 2
Technological/Scientific
Advances in geo-engineering technologies
Environmental
Climate change concerns
Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal
Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks
Opportunities
before 2015
More research funding in geo-enginering areas
between 2015-2025
Growing cost-benefit concerns about geo-engineering research and technology development efforts
Potential stakeholders' actions
short-term actions
(now-2015)
longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels)
Promote geo-engineering standards and regulations
Academic/Research sector
More research on unexpected and undesirable impacts of geo-engineering
Media
Inform the general public
Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges
where?
please justify:
particularly relevant
Europe
world
Coexistence and conflicts
Concerns about possible military uses of geo-engineering technologies
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Geo-engineering will raise concerns about ethical practices
Sustainability and climate change
Geo-engineering may potentially resolve the climate change element of this Grand Challenge
Signal's relevance for thematic research areas
please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Space
Security
Pan-European strategies influencing the signal
please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology
Research-friendly strategies
potentially improving understanding of the signal
For further information about 'research-friendly strategies'
click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.
Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies
Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
It highlights the need for more RTD on geo-engineeirng and more robust STI policies
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