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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Growing recognition of importance of uncertain and low-probability events

version: 4 / updated: 2009-12-03
id: #548 / version id: #154
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ian Miles
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 8 - Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Blue Sky Research on emerging issues and other research economies

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
iKNOW (225695)

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Weak Signal

File name File type File size
iknow_logo.jpg image 641953 open

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Growing recognition of importance of uncertain and low-probability events

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Growing interest in understanding WIs and WEs, and other topics that are hard to forecast. Growing recognition of importance of uncertain and low-probability events: reflects trend for these to become more prevalent or disruptive of established policies and programmes. EC funds research on wild cards and weak signals. EC Directorate General Research under the Seventh Framework Programme theme eight (Socioeconomic sciences and the Humanities) launches a series of foresight initiatives (such as iKNOW, SESTI, SANDERA, FARHORIZON, INFU and CIVISTI projects) promoting ‘blue sky’ research on emerging issues affecting European science and technology. Turbulent Times: institutions confronting disruptive change; Post-normal STI policy.

Keywords

weak signal, wild card, blue sky, early warning, research, policy

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 major breakthroughs in estimating and assessing WIs lead to revolution in risk management approaches.
#2 A significant threat is detected in the project, and this leads to major policy reorientation.
#3 The project leads to overemphasis on specific types of problem, as is revealed when some completely different sort of problem ends the world (or ERA).

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Innovation dynamics

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.