Analysis Back

Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Increasing Migration Due To Climate Change

version: 1 / created: 2009-11-30
id: #477 / version id: #477
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Cornelia Daheim
WI-WE status:

submitted

unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

IDEAS: Interdisciplinary

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)

Increasing Migration Due To Climate Change

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)

Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)

Extreme weather phenomena such as hurricanes, storm floods or droughts are already causing migration, especially in parts of Africa and Asia (e.g. in India about 4 mio. people leave their homes temporarily every year). Besides the rising number of these sudden incidents, there are increased "creeping" aftermaths of climate change, such as desertification, the loss of coastal areas by flooding etc., that will additionally cause migration on a much larger scale.

Keywords

migration, climate change, migration flows, desertification, droughts

Signal's first apperance

before 2000

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...

	issue	type of issue/development	potential impact on society	timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1	WI: Mass migration taking place from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere.	continuation	very harmful	now-2025

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

no sufficient measures taken to mitigate climate change

Importance

		please specify
	please select	please specify
Level 4: important for the whole world		some rgions will be more affected by climate change than others, the latter will be destinations for migrants

Progress: 47.92% WWI-WE Version: 1
0	mandatory questions pending
19	questions total
8	questions answered
8	questions completed
11	questions pending