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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Interesting new types of climate change models and anticipation methods are being developed in many frontiers

version: 1 / created: 2009-11-24
id: #363 / version id: #363
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
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Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

IDEAS: Physical Sciences & Engineering

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Earth system science

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
PACEMAKER (226600), C8 (226144), MATRICS (226172), ICEPROXY (203441)

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Interesting new types of climate change models and anticipation methods are being developed in many frontiers

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
PACEMAKER (Project Reference: 226600) discovered a new quantitative continental temperature proxy, the MBT index, which is based on the distribution of membrane lipids of soil bacteria. Their composition is a function of annual mean air temperature (MAT). These lipids are transported by rivers to the ocean and deposited in marine sediments. Computer models used to predict directions of future climate change are validated by means of retrospective analysis of past climate changes. Detailed reconstruction of past climates, especially temperature, is, therefore, of considerable importance. Several tools (proxies) are available to reconstruct absolute sea surface temperatures. Continental temperature reconstructions, however, are hampered by a lack of quantitative temperature proxies and, consequently, are often qualitative rather than quantitative.

Keywords

temperature proxy, climate change models, anticipation methods