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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Neuro-Enhancement

version: 10 / updated: 2011-11-11
id: #1871 / version id: #11
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 1 - Health

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Prediction of suitability, safety and efficacy of therapies

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Weak Signal

File name File type File size
Neuro_Enhancements.jpg image 144664 open

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Neuro-Enhancement

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
New drugs are continuously introduced. The drug consumption of legal and illegal drugs to improve one´s performance rises (neuro-enhancement). The consumption has already risen immensely: legal forms of amphetamine are given to hyper-active children as medication; illegal forms as speed and other drugs to improve one´s performance and concentration. These are taken by fighter pilots as well as by managers. athletes, scientists and students.

Keywords

medication, drugs, consumption, neuro-enhancement, amphetamine

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
New drugs are continuously introduced. The drug consumption of drugs to improve one´s performance or mood becomes more widespread (neuro-enhancement), particularly of medicine which is usually prescriped on people with cerebral diseases.

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 New mind-enhancing drugs become socially accepted and is taken by almost every citizen of the EU. discontinuation
mainly harmful
now-2025
#2 A growing number of people might become mentally ill continuation
very harmful
now-2015

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

The Weak Signal might evolve if nothing is done to prevent it. Employees, students and other groups experience a rising pressure to succeed.

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union The signal is of high importance for the European Union and its member states. The abuse of medicine and drugs might have significant impacts on general health and the mental state of populations, thus affecting mental and physical resilience. Additionally moral, ethical, social and political issues play a fundamental role. The increasing drug abuse might reveal fundamental problems of social structures and thus will have impacts on politics and raise ethical questions.

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)

Comments on selection:

Information/communicational filter: One filter might be the minor media attention for neuro-enhancement and possible negative side effects due to a lack of extensive studies on possible side effects. Cultural/religious filter: Although drug abuse is a wide spread problem, many people don´t mention their consumption of neuro-enhancing drugs towards other people. This might be due to prevalent cultural and religious values, but also in many cases due to fear of legal consequences. Affective filter: Many people might not mention their drug abuse due to feelings of shame. The abuse of antidepressants could be a sign for mental weakness. Thus people often do not talk about its consumption.

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Social One main reason for the increasing abuse of medicine and drugs is the continuously growing quantity of obtainable substances. Pharmaceutical research on active ingredients lead on to the permanent introduction of novel forms of effective medicines and stimulants (e.g. methylphenidate or modafinil). These are originally developed for ill people, but equally cause effects on mentally healthy persons, especially on their cognitive abilities as e.g. awareness, information processing and stress resistance
Economic Performance requirements rise continuously in all kinds of professions (particularly in research, military and knowledge domains). The achievement-oriented society forces more and more employees to work under restrictive, stressful and burdening conditions as uncertainty, increasing time pressure and growing competition. Furthermore, fear of unemployment and social exclusion cause people to frequently reach their mental and physical limits, leading to stress diseases and burnouts, which also affects private life
Values/Ethical/Cultural Drug abuse is increasingly being accepted in all parts of society. Many people do not refrain anymore from taking drugs or stimulants offered by other people or colleagues in order not to be socially excluded. Another important factor is the general aspiration to be socially accepted and to make impressions on other persons, e.g. to work faster, longer and better than other colleagues. The latter factor of display behaviour is increasingly widespread among children and adolescents. The consumption of legal and illegal drugs has risen alarmingly among these groups

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 The extensive consumption of mind-enhancing drugs might enhance the performance in stressful situations such as complex surgeries requiring the highest level of concentration and quick reactions. Thus, the number of critical incidents might decrease significantly. Furthermore, the overall productivity of the working society might rise immensely due to enhanced cognitive abilities and an increased mental wellbeing. Economic growth is furthered
between 2015-2025 An increasing share of the population might be physically and mentally addicted to a broad variety of different drugs and medicines. The sudden and unexpected emergence of unexplored side effects lead on to a loss of productivity and availability of human resources in the labour markets and distor-tions in social relationships. Furthermore a possible diminished accountability and decreasing responsiveness could lead to an increasing number of accidents in traffic, shipping and aviation. Additionally there might be a growing number of deadly mistakes in surgeries. Besides, people might consume drugs in order to escape from private problems such as problems in relationships. Thus a growing number of families might break up due to ignoring family problems and drug addiction. Last but not least the aspect of social and intelligence equality has to be considered. If neuro-enhancements are merely distributed at a high price, there might emerge an pseudo-intellectual gap in society, as only prosperous people can afford these substances. Wealthy people become more successful in work and thus, the income gap increases further
between 2025-2050 A considerable number of serious long-term effects might emerge with the majority of addicted people. Thus, psychosomatic diseases such as serious personality disorders might become common diseases among large parts of society. Another possible risk might be the decrease of general life expectancy. Permanent abuse of medicine might cause serious mutations of the genotype and human cells. This leads to a growing number of people having cancer and other life-threatening diseases Further research on improving the effectiveness of neuro-enhancing medicine could discover groundbreaking active sub-stances. Psychosomatic diseases cannot only be cured by the consumption of medicine, but also be prophylactically avoided. Thus, such diseases are being entirely exterminated

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015)
longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) The EU is challenged to release Europe-wide legal regulation on handling such drugs. Thus the EU would not only pass but furthermore hamonise possible restrictions National governments have to set up framework conditions encouraging more people to become care attendants, as a growing number of populations is mentally ill and dependent on care
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Business actors such as large-scale and small and medium-sized enterprises could reassess their working-conditions and working-hour models, so that employees might lose the incentives to take neuro-enhancements Employees control their employees for substance abuse by regular blood tests
Academic/Research sector The academic/research sector ought to intensify research on side effects of such medicines on the mental and physical constitution on healthy people as long-term effects are not sufficiently clear Supposed, that side effects appear in high numbers, research has to concentrate on the development to alleviate them
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Public institutions with support of the media might start broadcasting of extensive information campaigns concerning possible side effects and dangers of intensified drug and medicine abuse
Media Public institutions with support of the media might start broadcasting of extensive information campaigns concerning possible side effects and dangers of intensified drug and medicine abuse

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being Health and well being of populations might decrease immensely due to several negative side effects. The capacity to cope with pressure and also to face and solve conflicts without “enhancers” decreases. Health problems become more and more widerspread in the medium term as the abuse of enhancers decreases the individuals´ ability to recognise signs of illness and to react adequately
Ethics and abuse of S&T enhancements could lead to a comprehensive abuse of active substances; e.g. in military and the security sector, where emotionless and ruthless “executors” are being bred. Images of over-powerful and ever-performing humans threaten to radically change the understanding of being human
Social pathologies & ethics The increasing acceptance of neuro-enhancing substances might cause a growing acceptance and abuse of dangerous and illegal drugs such as amphetamines or hallucinogens as ecstasy or LSD
Work-Life balance and mental health The increasing performance and stress resistance leads to a growing share of time being spent on the job. Family, friends and social activities might be more and more neglected due to improved working power

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health The Weak signal is of high importance for research on health and medicine. It indicates the growing relevance of extensive case studies on possible side effects caused by neuro-enhancing medicine, but also on indicators and such factors for becoming a user. Research on coping, stress management and resilience has to be strengthened
Transport (including aeronautics) The abuse of active substances might lead on to new challenges concerning road safety. Mentally “enhanced” drivers might tend to cause accidents more often than healthy drivers
Security With the increasing share of mentally “enhanced” people the possibility of crimes and terroristic attacks being commited across the EU might rise immensely
Regional development : Regions being particularly affected by high consumption rates are more likely to collapse concerning social values and economy

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer This strategy might help to share and diffuse specific knowledge concerning effectiveness and possible side effects and prevent redundancies on specific research issues. Therefore, pharmaceutical research institutions have to strengthen their international cooperation and partnership
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology This strategy might help to share and diffuse specific knowledge concerning effectiveness and possible side effects and prevent redundancies on specific research issues. Therefore, pharmaceutical research institutions have to strengthen their international cooperation and partnership

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
This strategy might support research on environmental, social, and cultural (incl. labour) reasons, which foster medicine and drug abuse in areas which are seriously affected by high rates of drug and medicine consumption
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.
This strategy might accelerate the immediate prohibition of dangerous medicines due to an increased cooperation between national governments and research institutions

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Research on possibly dangerous side effects caused by medicine on healthy people has to be strengthened in order to prevent unexpected long-term effects and damages on body and soul. Besides, research on ergonomics, particularly on work forms, working-hour models and human working conditions has to be advanced, so that productivity is possible without active substances