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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Reduction in human diversity

version: 3 / updated: 2010-11-11
id: #1114 / version id: #1032
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Nanosciences and converging sciences

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
NANODNASEQUENCING

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Reduction in human diversity

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
If genetic screening became widespread and allowed uncontrolled use in the selection of genes for specific traits then what would be the result? Genetic testing and screening has huge potential for medical applications, such as genetic diagnosis of vulnerabilities to inherent disease, the technology applications will largely govern whether this technology ultimately is positive or negative.

Keywords

Genetic Screening, Genes, Disease, Technology Applications, human Diversity

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
If genetic screening became widespread and allowed uncontrolled use in the selection of genes for specific traits then what would be the result? Genetic testing and screening has huge potential for medical applications, but also potential for damage

Signal's first apperance

before 2000

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Every couple wanting to have the "perfect" child - leading to reduction of genetic variability of human species new/emerging
 		very harmful
 		now-2050

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

If research and development continues in this field then eventually the technology will exist to "design your own baby", unless strict regulations are put in place to prevent this then the weak signal will evolve

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world This weak signal could have a huge effect on the human species as a whole

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Comments on selection:

Unless the public are made aware of the potential harm which this weak signal could lead to then there would be no calls for the research to be controlled

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Social people wanting to have a "perfect child"
Economic Industry will see the potential to profit from this technology

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
beyond 2050 human population will be much less diverse, resulting in the whole population being less able to adapt to new evolutionary selective pressures.

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Put legislation in place to prevent this research being used in applications which will have long term detrimental effects
Media Educate the public about the harm which this research can potentially cause

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being Would lead to a human population which is more susceptible to being wiped out by a new disease.
Ethics and abuse of S&T Designing the "perfect baby"
Social exclusion & poverty This weak signal could lead to class society - the enhanced elite and the unmodified underclass

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health Could lead to a human race which is very susceptible to a single disease
Social Sciences and Humanities Potential class society - enhanced and un-enhanced

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Making people aware of the potential dangers of new technologies

Research-friendly strategies potentially improving understanding of the signal

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here
please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Policy makers and researchers working together to ensure new technology is used ethically and appropriately