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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: FP7 » Some opinion shift towards pro-nuclear power

version: 1 / created: 2009-09-23
id: #149 / version id: #149
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
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Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 5 - Energy

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Knowledge for energy policy-making

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
Singapore's Global Monitor Project

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Some opinion shift towards pro-nuclear power

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Finland, China and US are currently building nuclear power plants and planning to start new constructions. The public opinion in these countries has changed towards more fission friendly after long political debates and discussions in media. Furthermore, Sweden canceled its decision to close its nuclear plants. Mandatory reduction of CO2 emmissions and vulnerability of Russian energy supplies have been two drivers behind.

Keywords

nuclear power, fission, value, energy production, energy demands

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Construction of nuclear power may rise to the political agenda of EU contries re-emerging
 		mainly beneficial
 		now-2025

Under what assumption the Weak Signal might evolve.

A potential political trigger could be, for example, political energy supply game played by Russia, and EC’s decision to finance nuclear power R&D as an answer to CO2 emmission reduction. More contries start constructions of new plants.

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Comments on selection:

There are many filters which prevent us from noticing this WE. First of all most of the EU countries and their citizens still consider that building nuclear power is highly risky, and secondly they consider it as undesired for the environment.

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Technological/Scientific It possible
Economic It profitable and affordable
Environmental It reduces CO2 emissions
Political it reduces dependence of Russian energy

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
between 2015-2025 Nuclear catastrophy, terrorist actions Energy sufficiency in EU
between 2025-2050 Tensions between EU, Russia and formal oil contries More peace full global politics

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Be prepared for avallanche of opinion shifts Funding R&D

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Security
Nuclear research

Signal's relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Not very much