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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: history/past event » The rising attractiveness of unintended consequences

version: 1 / created: 2010-10-11
id: #987 / version id: #987
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Alex Soojung-Kim Pang
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Last changed by: Alex Soojung-Kim Pang
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

History/Past event (e.g. natural disasters, wars, discoveries, etc...)

The source of the Weak Signal is

Peter W. Galbraith, Unintended Consequences: How War in Iraq Strengthened America’s Enemies (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008); Robert Merton, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," American Sociological Review 1:6 (1936), 894-904; Jon Perr, "Cheney Defends the 'Nobody Could've Predicted' President," Crooks and Liars (11 January 2009), online at http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/cheney-defends-nobody-couldve-predicted-p.

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
The rising attractiveness of unintended consequences

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
Unintended consequences seem to plague our best efforts to plan these days. Financial writer Shishir Nigam declared in mid-2010 that "one of the biggest themes in this current investment environment and in the next few years will be the dominance of unintended consequences - an environment where the unintended consequences of actions will speak much louder than the intended actions themselves." Indeed, a growing number of leaders excuse their failures by invoking unintended consequences-- a development that has troubling implications for the way we make policy and decisions.

Keywords

decision-making, psychology, undesired effects, unintended consequences, politics, economy, finance

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
The concept of "'unintended consequences" has become more popular as a catch-all explanation in politics, policy, and finance. This suggests a growing skepticism about the need for leaders to make sense of, and anticipate, the future.

Signal's first apperance

2005-now

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 Growing sense that the world is too complex for decision-makers to really grasp or shape. continuation
 		mainly harmful
 		now-2015
#2 Less concern for anticipating potential bad outcomes of policy or financial decisions. new/emerging
 		mainly harmful
 		now-2015
#3 Decreased sense among leaders that they should be responsible for anticipating unintended consequences. new/emerging
 		mainly harmful
 		now-2015

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country United States
Level 3: important for the European Union

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Key driving forces of this signal

Please use these boxes to provide up to 2 drivers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
Driver 1 Driver 2
Social Growing sense of world's complexity
Technological/Scientific Increased complexity of technological systems
Economic Growing interdependence and globalization; growing complexity of financial instruments
Environmental Recognition that humans affect the environment, but less consensus that this can be reversed
Political Desire to avoid accountability for difficult problems.

Major risks & opportunities associated to the signal

Please choose the most appropriate timeframe option(s) to which you would like to provide inputs.
Risks Opportunities
before 2015 Declining sense of responsibility among politicians and financial leaders
between 2015-2025 Greater passivity in the face of ever-more urgent complex global challenges.

Potential stakeholders' actions

short-term actions
(now-2015) 		longer-term
(after 2015)
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Policy and business actors have been the main vectors of this concept.
Academic/Research sector Defining what can and cannot be anticipated in a complex world with greater uncertainty.

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Social exclusion & poverty
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change) Climate change is one of the great current examples of "wicked problems" that tend to provoke claims about unintended consequences.
Security National security is another place where people are especially aware of (or on the lookout for) unintended consequences.

Pan-European strategies influencing the signal

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer