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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » A major climatic event

version: 5 / updated: 2011-10-21
id: #1796 / version id: #1796
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

David Alexander, CESPRO, Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

A major climatic event

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
For example the first European Hurricane. – We had a tropical storm in Portugal in 2008 for example. There is an interesting project looking at this – the Katrina project – it has nothing to do with America but is modelling the effects of a super storm in Europe. There is a strong potential for a major storm that could affect many countries at once or in turn. We have had these recently – in 2000 and 2002 floods in six countries. Also tornadoes are highly underrated in Europe – these have happened (example the one in Birmingham), relatively small but we should prepare for a major one, which could result in a higher loss of life.

Keywords

climate change, disasters

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Natural Systems - E.g. landscapes, mountains, oceans, rivers, forests, and the like

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

other, please specify:   Environmental

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)