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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » A major disaster caused by an R&D accident

version: 6 / updated: 2011-10-26
id: #1853 / version id: #1853
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Ian PEARSON, Futurizon, Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

A major disaster caused by an R&D accident

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
it is more likely in the biotech field. For example a virus or bacteria created in a laboratory is released by terrorists, and causes chaos

Keywords

R&D, business, biotechnology, viruses, terrorism

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

it is more likely in the biotech field. For example a virus or bacteria created in a laboratory is released by terrorists, and causes chaos

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Social Sciences and Humanities
Research infrastructures

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.