quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 82.15%   WWI-WE Version: 2
0 mandatory questions pending
26 questions total
20 questions answered
20 questions completed
6 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Agriculture becomes a “gold mine”

version: 2 / updated: 2011-01-26
id: #1487 / version id: #606
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Food quality and safety

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Agriculture becomes a “gold mine”

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A sudden change in global weather leads to sever crop failure all around the world. Investors and nations start to compete in global food exchange. The price of basic food suddenly becomes over twenty times higher. Finally, basic production becomes profitable, but the other side of the coin is a global famine.

Keywords

agriculture, climate change, food crop production,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A sudden change in global weather leads to sever crop failure all around the world. Finally, basic production becomes profitable, but the other side of the coin is a global famine.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
Famine but agriculture becomes profitable

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		opportuinities in the short term
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		opportunities in the long term

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Academic/Research sector more research on agriculture

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal