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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Boom of ocean economy

version: 3 / updated: 2009-12-18
id: #625 / version id: #183
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Martin Fatun
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 3 - ICT - Information & communication technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Cognitive systems, interaction, robotics

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
CO3 AUVS (231378)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Boom of ocean economy

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Development of new intelligent robotic devices and machines started new era in utilization of ocean environment and resources. Elecric power from solar power plants on the ocean survace is utilized in underwater factories built stright next to row material resources on the sea bed. New artificial islands are built in ocean with status of independent tax havens.

Keywords

artificial fish, intelligent underwater robot, autonomous underwater device, ocean, artifidial island, ICT

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Electric power obtained from power plants located on the ocean surface is utilized in machine-controlled underwater factories built straight next to row material resources on seabed.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Majority of the industry production is made in automated plants which are located in the oceans. On dry land, only services satisfying living needs of population remain. This new system places higher demands on logistic and transportation.
Feature 2: education and research environment
The structures of education and research are changed. Topics related to the ocean utilization and ocean settlement are stressed.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
The life inland becomes more expensive and less comfortable than the life on the coast. Therefore people migrate from inlands to seaside, which leads to their overpopulation. Consequently, people are building and populating artificial islands and underwater cities
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Technologies and materials enabling life in ocean environment are stressed. Old continental infrastructures are dead and new ocean infrastructure is being built worldwide.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Political and economic map of the world is changing. Power of seaside states and regions is increasing. New influential political structures are arising in ocean (i.e. artificial islands, underwater cities).
Feature 6: health and quality of life
The change was triggered as a consequence of exhaustion of the continental natural resources. The quality of life is temporarily reduced, but future prospects are positive.
Feature 7: security and defence
The new ocean civilisation is more vulnerable to natural disasters (tsunami, storms, undersea earthquakes etc.).

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world The wild card manifestation will be extremely important for the whole world. For Europe it is vitally important to play an active role in development of technologies, which will be necessary for implementation of the ocean economy idea. Only that way Europe can utilise advantages of the new economy model and suppress possible related negative social, security and environmental consequences.

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

The European Commission has been funding a number of research projects focused to development of ICT technologies and intelligent robotic devices, which are necessary for realisation of the idea of ocean economy, e.g. CO3 AUVS, SHOAL, FILOSE and BRICS. As well, the progress in employment of renewable sources of energy (solar and wind power) together with shrinking of continental resources of raw materials may turn attention to more intense utilization of the oceans and resources they possess.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

• Latent phase: Today the world is standing at the crossroads with many possible roads to the future. Spectrum of problems which need to be quickly solved almost simultaneously is extremely wide. All the potential solutions succumb to many other indirect impacts, which prevent us to have a clear picture of the best possible future development. One of the possibilities may be formation of the ocean economy. Gradually, necessary technologies and other preconditions are developed, but for the time being the idea of ocean economy is not yet fully of media and policy concern. • Manifestation phase: The trigger for the wild card manifestation may be combination of following factors: acute need for energy from alternative sources, acute need for new resources of row materials as well as for new localities suitable for industrial production (i.e. out of strong ecological restrictions). Under these circumstances a strong private consortium with support of the government may start to build first fully machine-controlled offshore industry centre producing e.g. agriculture fertilizers. At the beginning, the manifestation of the wild card probably will be geographically and sectorally concentrated (e.g. to seaside states and specific industry sectors), but later on the trend may reach the European and worldwide level. • After-effect phase: The fully developed manifestation of the wildcard may lead to many desirable and undesirable (intended or unintended) consequences. Besides strong economic effects, significant social and geopolitical changes may evolve. New powerful independent states may be created in ocean with the world-leading ambitions. Although the development of the ocean economy may be rather beneficial for the protection of continental environment at the beginning, later on the negative impacts on the ocean environment may prevail and the global climatic balance may be disrupted.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Accessibility of new ICT technologies enabling machine-controlled operation of the ocean power stations, production plants etc. (e.g. intelligent autonomous robotic devices and machines). New materials suitable for construction of underwater and surface facilities.
Economic Need for energy from alternative sources (solar and wind power plants) Need for new resources of raw materials (located on shelf and ocean bed). Need of new locations suitable for industrial production (without expensive rent and ecological restrictions).
Environmental Strong ecological restrictions on industrial production and energy production on dry land.
Political Competition among states for ocean resources, especially raw materials.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild cards could lead to a quick economic development of seaside countries and regions.
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		In the short term horizon, first signs of ecological damages of the surrounding water environment may occur. Without strong internationally respected legislation and inspection the factories in ocean may evolve into significant sources of pollution with far-reaching local and global negative impacts. There may also be a permanent threat of destruction of the ocean facilities by a natural or human caused disaster as well. Improvement of continental environment because of the industry migration to the ocean.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		): In the medium term horizon undesirable social and geopolitical impacts may occur. The ocean facilities may turn into new centres of not only economic, but also political power. On the contrary, certain important and influential continental regions may fall behind. The differences between seaside and inland states may grow. Growth of the worldwide wealth. Strengthening of international cooperation at ocean facilities (particularly in R&D and ecology issues).
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		People may leave exhausted continents and start to live in oceans (on artificial islands or directly in underwater facilities). This change may entail a global social revolution. Overcoming of the global energy and raw material deficiency crisis due to the new resources found in the oceans.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) • The EC should support common research in fields enabling breakthrough of the ocean economy, i.e. intelligent autonomous robots, principles of underwater movement and orientation of such devices, new materials suitable for underwater engineering, new methods of energy production and transport in ocean environment etc. • The EC should support international acceptance of suitable environmental standards for industry utilisation of ocean environment and resources. • The EC should support formation and acceptance of international law for the intensive ocean utilization. The EC should guarantee common European consensus at the ocean economy development principles and as well it should guarantee an equal access of all European states and regions to the achievements of the ocean economy.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change The wild card may cause major changes in transportation and consumption patterns (new ways of manufacturing and transport of products to customers).
Energy security/dynamics The wild card supposes utilization of new renewable energy sources (solar and wind power plants on the ocean surface).
Economic prosperity/dynamics The wild card will create quite new economic environment. Major social changes will likely to follow.
Urban and rural dynamics Building of new settlements in seaside regions and in ocean is expected. The inland population will decrease.
Sustainability and climate change The wild card is connected to a possible improvement of continental ecology, but as well with considerable risk of danger for ocean and coastal ecology.

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
ICT - Information & communication technologies Primarily the research in ICT (e.g. Cognitive systems, interactions, robotics) and Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials and new production technologies has a crucial importance for the creation of preconditions for the possible wild card manifestation in the future.
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Research infrastructures
Regional development
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc. 		Making research institutions more aware of needs of economy and particular producers may accelerate development of required technologies.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Close cooperation between researchers and policy makers may lead to prevention of undesired aspects of the wild card manifestation.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
The future RTD & STI policies at EU and national level should be aware of the wild card drivers, triggers and consequences mentioned above. The policies should create conditions for utilisation of opportunities and elimination of risks connected to the wild card. They should support all the preventive and subsequent measures mentioned above.