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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

version: 2 / updated: 2011-01-24
id: #1482 / version id: #596
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 5 - Energy

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Knowledge for energy policy-making

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Suddenly scientists discover the way to do cold fusion which leads to renaissance in energy markets.

Keywords

Cold fusion, energy,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Suddenly scientists discover the way to do cold fusion which leads to renaissance in energy markets.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
lots of cheap energy
Feature 2: education and research environment
nuclear oriented reseach
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
increase of energy use
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
changes in favour of nuclear plants infrastructures
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
change in geopolitics
Feature 6: health and quality of life
improved heatlh, reduced risks of nuclear disasters
Feature 7: security and defence
increased. new vulnerabilities?

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

nuclear energy breakthroughts

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific breakthrough

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		new nuclear risks endless energy at low price

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change more energy consumption
Energy security/dynamics change in all infrastructural systems

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change) post-carbon society
Nuclear research enhanced
Research infrastructures nuclear research

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens) 		research development in cold fusion