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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Carbon crunch and the climate bubble

version: 5 / updated: 2010-12-28
id: #1306 / version id: #265
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Joe Ravetz
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Pressures on environment and climate

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
CLIMATECOST (212774) http://www.climatecost.cc/ClimateCost/Welcome.html http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=FP7_PROJ_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=1&CAT=PROJ&QUERY=012511593f73:6a11:5cfd32e4&RCN=89308

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Carbon crunch and the climate bubble

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Who will bail out the climate bubble? Universal carbon markets and pricing mechanisms fulfil the aspirations of the Copenhagen meeting. But they quickly lead to runaway speculation, c-derivatives and an inflationary carbon bubble, driven by the perception of easy money in carbon finance. This destroys any remaining confidence in low carbon technology investment, and increases the instability of any global climate governance system.

Keywords

carbon, economy, technology, investment, climate, market

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Universal carbon markets and pricing mechanisms fulfil the aspirations of the Copenhagen meeting. But they quickly lead to runaway speculation, c-derivatives and an inflationary carbon bubble, driven by the perception of easy money in carbon finance.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example) 		Credit crunch

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Economic Black economy

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		CO2 Market collapses

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer