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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » “Cheap liquid fuel production from algae replaces oil by 2030”

version: 1 / created: 2010-05-12
id: #808 / version id: #808
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Maurizio Sajeva
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Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Finland

Workshop date

December 2009

The source of the Wild Card is

workshop

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Wild scenario for energy - cheap liquid fuel from algae.doc other 44032 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

“Cheap liquid fuel production from algae replaces oil by 2030”

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
By mid-2010’s scientists in Europe discover new algae species from Mediterranean Sea which can be used very efficiently and very broadly in biofuel production. Soon after that the scientists discover a new scientific principle for producing huge quantities of cheap biofuel from the new algae species as well. Then international political leaders and organisations realize that algae is, not only a cheap and carbon neutral form of energy production, but also a good way to carbon caption form atmosphere. This is realized by customers around the world as well, which leads to huge demand on algae biofuel. Suddenly algae production become the globally accepted and heavily subsidised way to fight the climate change.

Keywords

biofuel,

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Business models could change in connection with changed geopolitical equilibrium. Tropical and sub-tropical countries could get major importance. Tradictional sectors could die and other sectors could take their place
Feature 2: education and research environment
advanced research and education will be relised in these fields
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
a new fuel market will arise, together with the market of lands and territories previously not valuable.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
New technologies, iduced economies and new infrastructures
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
new geopolitical alliances, trade. a revolution on the weights of countries at international level
Feature 6: health and quality of life
better quality of life and enhanced health
Feature 7: security and defence
end of oil wars.. beginning of other kind?

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

technological breakthroughts

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific breakthrought

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics new equilibriums
Techno-security, hazard & risk new risks?

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy new energy systems
Environment (including Climate Change) improved

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)