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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Climate change, rapid changes, our current models

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1881 / version id: #1881
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
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Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Joe RAVETZ, University of Manchester, Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Climate change, rapid changes, our current models

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Low probability events often appear to be extremely likely, because they keep happening. So, for example, a large part of the Arctic ice breaks off and sea levels rise, maybe there is a drought and a severe heatwave that jeopardises food supply in Europe, or some combination of those things. Then it is wild not because we did not think of it, but because it is contributing to a situation which is already under stress. The world may be in a bad way politically, economically and socially, etc.

Keywords

climate change, food crisis, social conflicts, economic security, political reforms

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Although we know climate change is happening, there could be very rapid changes, which according to our current models are only very low probability

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Governance and trust in democracy
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)