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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Climate Trade Tax based on fossil fuels emissions per capita

version: 7 / updated: 2009-11-16
id: #260 / version id: #246
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Pressures on environment and climate

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
CLIMATECOST (212774)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Climate Trade Tax based on fossil fuels emissions per capita

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Due to growing climate change concerns, the European Union introduces a new Climate Trade Tax on all goods and services, taking into account countries’ carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels (including gasoline, light oil and coal).

Keywords

climate change, tax, trade, emissions, fossil fuels, goods, services

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country United States, Australia, Canada, Russia, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Africa, Korea (South), Ukraine
Level 3: important for the European Union Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Poland, Italy, Spain, France
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

A French proposal to the European Union's trade commissioner in 2006 to implement a Green Trade Tax on goods from countries that have not ratified the Kyoto treaty. The proposal was rejected becasue it was seen as highly problematic under World Trade Organisation rules and very difficult to implement. Rand Institute 2008 study “Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use” favours fossil-fuel tax over renewable energy subsidies

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Environmental Growing concerns about climate change
Political Efforts to enforce the Kyoto protocol

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Collapse of trade with the USA and China Russia introduces new tax on oil and gas exports to Europe Renewable energies will be more competitive

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) To assess the economic and political implications of such a tax

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change Goods and services from China will become more expensive
Energy security/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Nuclear research Nuclear energy will become more attractive